FINISHED
Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion 2:0: result and odds
Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion finished 2:0; before kick-off the odds were 2.13 on a Liverpool win (having opened at 2.04), 3.18 on a Brighton & Hove Albion win and 3.82 on a draw. The AI models' pick was Brighton & Hove Albion +0 handicap at 2.45, and it lost.
- Referee: Sam Barrott · 3.6 yellow cards per match
- Premier League, matchday 8 of 38
- +11°, overcast, wind 42 km/h
- Anfield, Liverpool
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Brighton & Hove Albion +0 handicap
2.45The market prices this option at 38%
Draw no bet: the stake is returned if the match ends level.
AI models' pick · 7 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 5 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
likely score
2:1 9%1:2 8%2:0 7% — this score came in
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 7 days a Brighton & Hove Albion win shortened from 3.28 to 3.18 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementBrighton & Hove Albion 3.28 → 3.18 over 7 days · 83 snapshotsView
The biggest move is a Liverpool win: from 2.04 to 2.13 — 1.6 pp of implied chance, more than any other outcome.
Price changes
| When | Liverpool | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.13 | 3.82−0.03 | 3.18 | |
| 2.13+0.02 | 3.85−0.02 | 3.18−0.03 | |
| 2.11 | 3.87 | 3.21+0.01 | |
| 2.11 | 3.87+0.02 | 3.20−0.01 | |
| 2.11+0.01 | 3.85+0.01 | 3.21−0.01 | |
| 2.10 | 3.84−0.01 | 3.22−0.01 | |
| 2.10−0.02 | 3.85+0.03 | 3.23+0.04 | |
| 2.12 | 3.82+0.01 | 3.19−0.01 | |
| 2.12−0.01 | 3.81 | 3.20+0.02 | |
| 2.13 | 3.81+0.05 | 3.18+0.04 | |
| 2.13−0.01 | 3.76−0.04 | 3.14−0.01 | |
| 2.14+0.02 | 3.80+0.06 | 3.15+0.03 | |
| 2.12+0.01 | 3.74+0.01 | 3.12+0.01 | |
| 2.11 | 3.73 | 3.11−0.03 | |
| 2.11+0.07 | 3.73−0.08 | 3.14−0.14 | |
| 18 Oct – 20 Oct · no snapshots for 36 h | |||
| 2.04opened | 3.81opened | 3.28opened | |
How the match went
Pascal Groß's own goal on 17 minutes and Alexander Isak's strike on 21, set up by Bradley Barcola, gave Liverpool a 2-0 lead that held to the end. It was 2-0 at half-time as well. Brighton & Hove Albion had 64% of the ball against 36% and 17 shots to 13. The xG was 1.41 to 0.95 in their favour, yet only one shot was on target to Liverpool's four. Our Brighton & Hove Albion draw no bet, taken at 2.45, went down. Before kick-off Liverpool were 2.13 to win, the draw 3.82, Brighton & Hove Albion 3.18. A 2-0 finish was on offer at 11.21. Two goals meant the 2.5 line finished under, and both teams to score came out as no.
- 6'on Costinha, off Ferdi Kadıoğlu
- 17'Pascal Groß own goal1:0
- 21'Alexander Isak (Bradley Barcola)2:0
- 45'on Jack Hinshelwood, off Olivier Boscagli
- 45+3'Olivier Boscagli YC
- 54'on Malick Yalcouyé, off Chema Andrés
- 65'on Treymaurice Nyoni, off Florian Wirtz
- 73'Costinha YC
- 75'on Georginio Rutter, off Yasin Ayari
- 77'on Rio Ngumoha, off Bradley Barcola
- 77'on Lewis Koumas, off Alexander Isak
- 88'on Konstantinos Tsimikas, off Milos Kerkez
| Liverpool | stat | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| 0.95 | expected goals (xG) | 1.41 |
| 13 | shots | 17 |
| 4 | on target | 1 |
| 36% | possession | 64% |
| 4 | corners | 2 |
| 13 | fouls | 9 |
| 1 | saves | 3 |
| 0 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Liverpool- 1Alisson Becker6.2
- 6M. Kerkez6.1
- 4V. van Dijk6.9
- 5J. Jacquet6.7
- 33R. Araújo6.4
- 10A. Mac Allister5.8
- 38R. Gravenberch6.4
- 18C. Gakpo6.3
- 7F. Wirtz6.2
- 29B. Barcola7.4
- 9A. Isak — highest feed rating in the match8.2
- 73R. Ngumohaon 77'6.0
- 25G. Mamardashvili
- 2J. Gomez
- 21K. Tsimikason 88'6.5
- 3W. Endo
- 42T. Nyonion 65'6.6
- 53J. McConnell
- 14F. Chiesa
- 67L. Koumason 77'6.5
Brighton & Hove Albion- 1B. Verbruggen6.8
- 21O. Boscagli5.8
- 5L. Dunk6.2
- 44L. Vušković7.0
- 24F. Kadıoğlu6.1
- 14José María Andrés Baixauli6.7
- 13P. Groß6.8
- 29M. De Cuyper6.3
- 26Y. Ayari6.3
- 25D. Gómez6.4
- 19C. Kostoulas6.2
- 12P. David
- 15I. Osman
- 10G. Rutteron 75'6.5
- 35M. Yalcouyéon 54'6.6
- 33M. O'Riley
- 8J. Hinshelwoodon 45'5.9
- 20Costinhaon 6'5.8
- 3J. Hadjam
- 23J. Steele
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Brighton & Hove Albion draw no bet — the bet lost. 7 more chose close bets in the same direction: Brighton & Hove Albion not losing, a Brighton & Hove Albion win, Brighton & Hove Albion +1.5 and Brighton & Hove Albion +1. 3 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet lost. One more bet on both teams to score.
- 5 of 16DNB 2our betodds 2.45ChatGPTDeepSeekQwen
GLMNemotron Ultralost - 3 of 16X2same directionodds 1.77Claude
GeminiMiniMaxlost - 2 of 162same directionodds 3.28Xiaomi MiMoNemotron Superlost
- 1 of 16H2 (+1.5)same directionodds 1.27DeepSeek Flashlost
- 1 of 16H2 (+1)same directionodds 1.38
Groklost - 3 of 16O 2.5odds 1.56KimiMistral
Dots3-Notelost - 1 of 16BTTSodds 1.50
Sonarlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 23.10 at 20:32 UTC
Brighton & Hove Albion sit third with 16 points, Liverpool fifth with 12, and the gap comes down to form. In their last five matches the visitors have scored 16 and conceded just one goal, winning four in a row. On the road they have two wins and one defeat, averaging 3.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, while Liverpool are still waiting for a first win at Anfield this season: two draws and a defeat, 0.7 goals of their own per game and 1.7 against. The market gives Brighton a 29% chance of victory and another 25% for the draw, so more than half the outcomes leave our pick standing, and the visitors already beat this opponent 2-1 in March 2026.
Where we could be wrong
The caveat is in the forward line. Without Mitoma, Ferguson and Aziz, Brighton lose three attacking options at once, and the fluency of recent weeks may not be there. Liverpool also look a different side away from home: three wins and a draw, 1.8 goals a game, and last season they kept Brighton out twice — 2-0 in December 2025 and 3-0 in the FA Cup in February. Even so, we're backing Brighton & Hove Albion draw no bet at odds of 2.45.
- Bookmakers: Liverpool looks more likely.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Liverpool
C. BradleyDF · 21 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
H. EkitikeFW · 17 goals in 2025/26achilles tendon injuryout- J. FrimpongDF · 35 matches in 2025/26muscle injuryout
G. LeoniDF · 1 match in 2025/26knee injuryout- A. NalloDF · 2 matches in 2025/26leg injuryout
- D. SzoboszlaiMF · 13 goals in 2025/26muscle injuryout
- V. MunozFW · 7 goals in 2025/26knee injurydoubtful
Brighton & Hove Albion- F. AzeezMF · 11 goals in 2025/26abdominal strainout
E. FergusonFW · 5 goals in 2025/26ankle injuryout
Y. MintehMF · 36 matches in 2025/26injuryout
K. MitomaMF · 27 matches in 2025/26hamstring injuryout
S. TzimasFW · 12 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout- M. WiefferDF · 28 matches in 2025/26knee injuryout
- Z. YohannaMFinjuryout
- P. StruijkDF · 37 matches in 2025/26restdoubtful
managers: Andoni Iraola · Fabian Hurzeler · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Recent matches
Liverpool| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.10 | VillarrealChampions League | H | 4:3xG 2.4–1.6 | W |
| 17.10 | Brentford | A | 2:1xG 1.5–0.9 | W |
| 14.10 | LASKChampions League | A | 6:3xG 3.3–2.1 | W |
| 11.10 | Manchester City | H | 0:3xG 0.9–1.3 | L |
| 20.09 | Bournemouth | A | 1:0xG 1.6–0.8 | W |
| 15.09 | Tottenham HotspurEFL Cup | H | 3:1 | W |
Brighton & Hove Albion| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10 | JablonecConference League | A | 0:0xG 1.4–0.7 | D |
| 18.10 | Crystal Palace | H | 5:0xG 2.0–0.8 | W |
| 15.10 | Kauno ŽalgirisConference League | H | 4:0xG 4.0–0.0 | W |
| 10.10 | Sunderland | A | 2:0xG 1.4–0.7 | W |
| 19.09 | Arsenal | H | 3:0xG 1.3–1.6 | W |
| 16.09 | Manchester UnitedEFL Cup | A | 3:2 | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.3 / 1.1 | 3.3 / 0.7 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.6 / 1.2 | 2.1 / 1.5 | 1.5 |
| shots | 15.7 / 11.9 | 17.9 / 10.7 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 5 / 3.4 | 6 / 3.3 | 4.4 |
| corners | 4.9 / 4.4 | 5.7 / 5 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 13.9 / 10.3 | 12.9 / 10.3 | 11.5 |
| yellow cards | 2.7 / 2.3 | 2.1 / 1.3 | 2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| both scored | 43% | 29% | |
| clean sheets | 43% | 71% | |
| failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0.7 / 1.7 | 3.3 / 1.3 | |
| average total | 2.3 | 4.7 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| both scored | 33% | 33% | |
- Liverpool shoot more often than the league average: 15.7 shots vs 13.8
- Brighton & Hove Albion score more than the league average: 3.3 vs 1.5
- Brighton & Hove Albion: 4 league wins in a row
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Liverpool, away games only for Brighton & Hove Albion
Head to head
5–1–4Liverpool wins · draws · Brighton & Hove Albion wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool | 2:1 | 21.03.26 | |
| Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 3:0 | 14.02.26 | FA Cup |
| Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 2:0 | 13.12.25 | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool | 3:2 | 19.05.25 | |
| Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 2:1 | 02.11.24 | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool | 2:3 | 30.10.24 | EFL Cup |
| Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 2:1 | 31.03.24 | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool | 2:2 | 08.10.23 | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool | 2:1 | 29.01.23 | FA Cup |
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool | 3:0 | 14.01.23 |
- both scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 9 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6-0-1 | 11–5 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | 5-1-1 | 23–5 | 16 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4-1-2 | 17–13 | 13 | LDLWW |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3-3-1 | 9–8 | 12 | WDWLW |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2-4-1 | 13–8 | 10 | DDWDL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 23.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1521
- 16-3001
- 31-4511
- 46-6031
- 61-7523
- 76-9021
- 0-1525
- 16-3020
- 31-4551
- 46-6040
- 61-7522
- 76-9050
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
