FINISHED
Hull City vs Brentford 1:1: result and odds
Hull City vs Brentford finished 1:1; before kick-off the odds were 4.11 on a draw (having opened at 3.88), 4.95 on a Hull City win and 1.67 on a Brentford win. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.65, and it won.
- Referee: Robert Jones · 4 yellow cards per match
- Premier League, matchday 8 of 38
- +12°, clear, wind 40 km/h
- The MKM Stadium, Hull
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.65The market prices this option at 57%
AI models' pick · Two directions drew level; the one priced closer to the line was taken
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
1:2 9%0:2 8%0:1 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 7 days a Hull City win drifted from 4.46 to 4.95 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.65 → 1.65 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Yes 1.65 → 1.65, No 2.14 → 2.15.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | 2.15−0.01 | |
| 1.65 | 2.16+0.01 | |
| 1.65+0.01 | 2.15−0.02 | |
| 1.64−0.01 | 2.17+0.02 | |
| 1.65+0.01 | 2.15−0.01 | |
| 1.64 | 2.16+0.02 | |
| 1.64−0.01 | 2.14 | |
| 18 Oct – 20 Oct · no snapshots for 36 h | ||
| We published both teams score at 1.65 | ||
| 1.65opened | 2.14opened | |
How the match went
Oliver McBurnie put Hull City in front from the penalty spot on 24 minutes, and they led 1-0 at the break. Dango Ouattara levelled on 63 minutes from an Igor Thiago assist, and it finished 1-1. The expected goals were almost even, 1.92 for Hull City against 1.87 for Brentford, but the visitors had six shots on target to two and 57% of the ball. Hull City made five saves to Brentford's one. Our both-teams-to-score bet on odds of 1.65 landed. Before kick-off Brentford were favourites, their win rated 1.67 against 4.11 for the draw and 4.95 for Hull City. The 2.5 goals line went under, with two goals scored.
- 23'Aaron Hickey YC
- 24'Oliver McBurnie penalty1:0
- 62'on Jaidon Anthony, off Kevin Schade
- 62'on Mikkel Damsgaard, off Aaron Hickey
- 63'Dango Ouattara (Igor Thiago)1:1
- 65'on Brooke Norton-Cuffy, off Lewie Coyle
- 65'on Mohamed Ali Cho, off Ryan Giles
- 72'on Hidemasa Morita, off Tim Iroegbunam
- 78'on Callum Wilson, off Dango Ouattara
- 78'on El Hadji Malick Diouf, off Keane Lewis-Potter
- 86'on Robinio Vaz, off Oliver McBurnie
- 86'on Joe Gelhardt, off Mohamed Belloumi
| Hull City | stat | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| 1.92 | expected goals (xG) | 1.87 |
| 12 | shots | 14 |
| 2 | on target | 6 |
| 43% | possession | 57% |
| 5 | corners | 6 |
| 10 | fouls | 9 |
| 5 | saves | 1 |
| 0 | yellow cards | 1 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Hull City- 19K. Tzolakis7.1
- 3R. Giles6.4
- 22L. Herrington6.7
- 15J. Egan6.5
- 6S. Ajayi — highest feed rating in the match7.3
- 2L. Coyle6.6
- 21E. Stroud6.4
- 27R. Slater6.5
- 42T. Iroegbunam6.2
- 10M. Belloumi6.7
- 9O. McBurnie7.1
- 50M. Choon 65'7.2
- 47R. Vazon 86'6.1
- 25M. Crooks
- 18B. Norton-Cuffyon 65'6.6
- 11J. Gelhardton 86'6.8
- 7S. Thomas
- 5H. Moritaon 72'6.3
- 17P. McNair
- 12D. Phillips
Brentford- 1C. Kelleher6.6
- 23K. Lewis-Potter6.1
- 20K. Ajer6.7
- 4S. van den Berg6.8
- 33M. Kayode7.0
- 2A. Hickey6.5
- 18M. Sangaré6.3
- 7K. Schade6.1
- 8M. Jensen6.5
- 11D. Ouattara7.3
- 9Thiago6.8
- 39Gustavo Gomes
- 13C. Wilsonon 78'6.2
- 24M. Damsgaardon 62'7.1
- 19J. Anthonyon 62'6.9
- 44Jannik Schuster
- 48B. Fredrick
- 25E. Dioufon 78'6.3
- 22N. Collins
- 12H. Valdimarsson
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet won. 4 more bet on a Brentford win — the bet lost. The other 7 chose other bets: a total-goals bet, double chance, a Hull City handicap and a draw.
- 5 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.65KimiDeepSeek FlashMistralXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-Notewon - 4 of 162odds 1.75ChatGPT
Gemini
GrokNemotron Superlost - 2 of 16U 2.5odds 2.16DeepSeekQwenwon
- 1 of 16X2odds 1.21
Sonarwon - 1 of 16H1 (+1.5)odds 1.39MiniMaxwon
- 1 of 16H1 (+1)odds 1.61Nemotron Ultrawon
- 1 of 161Xodds 2.10Claudewon
- 1 of 16Xodds 3.88
GLMwon
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC
Previous meetings between these two have rarely passed with goals at only one end: Hull City won 3-2 in December 2017, then came a 1-1 draw in August 2019, and Brentford won 5-1 in February 2020. Brentford's travels this season tell the same story — in three games on the road the goals came from both sides every time, at 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Hull City have found the net in two of their three home matches, and Brentford's 11 goals in six official games suggest the visitors will get their moment in this Premier League meeting at the MKM Stadium too. The market puts the chance of both teams scoring at 57%, and our pick is both teams to score at odds of 1.65.
Where we could be wrong
And what about those three home matches for Hull City, with 0.7 conceded per game and two clean sheets? It is a short sample, but drizzle and a 34 km/h wind point towards the same tight, cagey evening, and with 34.3% possession and 0.92 xG per match the hosts are quite capable of going through the night without scoring.
- Two directions drew the same number of AI models: the bet was taken from the one priced closer to the line.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Recent matches
Hull City| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Fulham | A | 0:1xG 0.2–1.5 | L |
| 11.10 | Everton | H | 2:2xG 1.3–1.7 | D |
| 19.09 | Newcastle United | A | 1:2xG 1.6–1.4 | L |
| 12.09 | Chelsea | A | 2:2 | D |
| 08.09 | SunderlandEFL Cup | A | 0:1 | L |
| 05.09 | Aston Villa | H | 0:0xG 0.6–1.9 | D |
Brentford| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Liverpool | H | 1:2xG 0.9–1.5 | L |
| 10.10 | Aston Villa | A | 2:2xG 1.1–2.3 | D |
| 18.09 | Chelsea | H | 3:0xG 2.6–0.8 | W |
| 15.09 | ReadingEFL Cup | A | 2:1 | W |
| 12.09 | Bournemouth | A | 2:2xG 0.5–1.8 | D |
| 05.09 | Sunderland | H | 1:1xG 1.2–1.7 | D |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | EPL |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.1 / 1 | 1.9 / 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 1.5 | 1.5 |
| shots | 10.7 / 14.6 | 15 / 15.4 | 13.8 |
| shots on target | 3.4 / 4.9 | 4.1 / 5 | 4.4 |
| corners | 3.7 / 6.6 | 3.9 / 5.1 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 10.9 / 7.6 | 14.7 / 9.3 | 11.5 |
| yellow cards | 3 / 0.9 | 2.9 / 1.9 | 2 |
| matches over 2.5 | 43% | 71% | |
| both scored | 43% | 71% | |
| clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1.7 / 1.7 | |
| average total | 2 | 3.3 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| both scored | 33% | 100% | |
- Hull City score less than the league average: 1.1 vs 1.5
- Brentford score more than the league average: 1.9 vs 1.5
- Hull City without a win in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Hull City, away games only for Brentford
Head to head
4–2–2Hull City wins · draws · Brentford wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City vs Brentford | 1:5 | 01.02.20 | Championship |
| Brentford vs Hull City | 1:1 | 17.08.19 | Championship |
| Brentford vs Hull City | 5:1 | 23.02.19 | Championship |
| Hull City vs Brentford | 2:0 | 15.12.18 | Championship |
| Brentford vs Hull City | 1:1 | 06.05.18 | Championship |
| Hull City vs Brentford | 3:2 | 09.12.17 | Championship |
| Hull City vs Brentford | 2:0 | 26.04.16 | Championship |
| Brentford vs Hull City | 0:2 | 03.11.15 | Championship |
- both scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 8
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3-3-1 | 9–8 | 12 | WDWLW |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2-4-1 | 13–8 | 10 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Leeds United | 7 | 2-4-1 | 9–6 | 10 | DWDLD |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2-4-1 | 8–7 | 10 | DDWDL |
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 2-3-2 | 8–7 | 9 | DDLDL |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 7 | 3-0-4 | 11–15 | 9 | LWLWL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1503
- 16-3020
- 31-4521
- 46-6011
- 61-7522
- 76-9010
- 0-1521
- 16-3000
- 31-4541
- 46-6031
- 61-7512
- 76-9033
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
