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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Sunderland vs Leeds United 0:0: result and odds

Sunderland vs Leeds United finished 0:0; before kick-off the odds were 3.13 on a draw (having opened at 3.33), 2.93 on a Sunderland win and 2.59 on a Leeds United win. The AI models' pick was under 2.5 goals at 1.76, and it won.

published · updated UTC

Sunderland
Leeds United

AI models' pick: Under 2.5 goals

1.76

The market prices this option at 54%

AI models' pick · 12 of 15 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 3 chose others

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

won+0.76 unitsclosing odds1.68CLV+5%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:114%odds 6.24

0:0 9% — this score came in2:1 8%1:2 8%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 25.10 15:17

result12.93+0.15X3.13−0.2022.59+0.04
total 2.5O2.20+0.13U1.68 — matches our bet−0.08
both to scoreyes1.83+0.04no1.91−0.03
double chance1X1.50−0.01121.36+0.03X21.40−0.03
handicapH1 +11.20H2 −14.37+0.10

Over 7 days a draw shortened from 3.33 to 3.13 — money is coming in on the draw.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Under 2.5: 1.76 → 1.68 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (under 2.5 goals) has shortened from 1.76 to 1.68: the market now rates it as more likely.

Over 2.52.07 → 2.20Under 2.51.76 → 1.68our bet
1.802.002.2036 hno data18 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 OctWe published · 1.76Over 2.5 2.20Under 2.5 1.68

Price changes

Price changes in the Total 2.5 market
WhenOver 2.5Under 2.5 · our bet
2.20+0.051.68−0.04
2.15+0.021.72−0.01
2.13+0.011.73
2.12+0.011.73−0.01
2.11−0.021.74+0.01
2.13+0.011.73
2.12−0.011.73
2.13+0.051.73−0.03
2.081.76+0.01
2.08+0.011.75−0.01
18 Oct – 20 Oct · no snapshots for 36 h
We published under 2.5 goals at 1.76
2.07opened1.76opened
85 snapshots · the prices changed 10 times

How the match went

half-time 0:0

match report · 25.10 19:23

Sunderland and Leeds United played out a 0-0 draw, a scoreline on offer at 8.90 before kick-off. It was goalless at the break and stayed that way. The numbers leaned to Sunderland: 0.99 xG against 0.63, and 15 shots to 11, though each side hit the target four times. Leeds United had 55% of the ball against 45%. The bookings were the main incidents. Ethan Ampadu went into the book on 29 minutes, Reinildo Isnard Mandava on 39 for Sunderland, and Jayden Bogle on 67, so Leeds United finished with two yellows to one. Our under bet on the 2.5 line, taken at 1.76, landed. Before kick-off the market had Leeds United at 2.59 to win, Sunderland 2.93 and the draw 3.13.

  1. 29'Leeds UnitedEthan Ampadu YC
  2. 39'SunderlandReinildo Isnard Mandava YC
  3. 52'Sunderlandon Omar Alderete, off Nordi Mukiele
  4. 65'Sunderlandon Timur Tutierov, off Brian Brobbey
  5. 65'Leeds Unitedon Noah Okafor, off Brenden Aaronson
  6. 66'Leeds Unitedon Anton Stach, off Harry Wilson
  7. 67'Leeds UnitedJayden Bogle YC
  8. 79'Sunderlandon Chemsdine Talbi, off Nilson Angulo
  9. 79'Sunderlandon Habib Diarra, off Enzo Le Fée
  10. 85'Leeds Unitedon Lukas Nmecha, off Dominic Calvert-Lewin
  11. 89'Leeds Unitedon Sean Longstaff, off Ao Tanaka
Match stats: Sunderland vs Leeds United
SunderlandstatLeeds United
0.99expected goals (xG)0.63
15shots11
4on target4
45%possession55%
4corners5
10fouls14
3saves4
1yellow cards2
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Sunderland

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager R. Le Bris

starting XIfeed rating
  • 22R. Roefs6.5
  • 17Reinildo6.0
  • 13L. O'Nien6.9
  • 20N. Mukiele7.2
  • 32T. Hume6.5
  • 27N. Sadiki6.2
  • 34G. Xhaka6.4
  • 10N. Angulo6.7
  • 28E. Le Fée6.3
  • 11C. Rigg6.4
  • 9B. Brobbey6.8
substitutes
  • 31M. Ellborg
  • 19H. Diarraon 79'6.2
  • 15O. Aldereteon 52'6.8
  • 29Jules Ahoka
  • 6D. Methalie
  • 50J. Angulo
  • 7C. Talbion 79'6.1
  • 39M. Fofana
  • 57Timur Tuterovon 65'6.6
Leeds United

formation 3-4-2-1 · manager D. Farke

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1J. Trafford — highest feed rating in the match7.6
  • 5T. Muharemović6.8
  • 15J. Bijol6.8
  • 24J. Justin6.3
  • 3G. Gudmundsson6.4
  • 22A. Tanaka6.6
  • 4E. Ampadu6.3
  • 2J. Bogle6.4
  • 11B. Aaronson6.0
  • 10H. Wilson6.7
  • 9D. Calvert-Lewin6.1
substitutes
  • 16M. Zetterer
  • 26M. Bard
  • 18A. Stachon 66'6.6
  • 50Alfie Cresswell
  • 8S. Longstaffon 89'7.0
  • 44I. Gruev
  • 14L. Nmechaon 85'6.5
  • 19N. Okaforon 65'6.9
  • 23J. Bahoya

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on under 2.5 goals — the bet won. 2 more bet on Leeds United not losing — the bet won. One more bet on a Leeds United win.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC

This has the makings of a tight, low-scoring game. Sunderland have averaged 0.3 goals across three home matches this season, drew a blank in two of them, and not one of those games reached three goals. Leeds United sit at around two goals per match on the road counting both sides, with three or more just once. The previous meetings point the same way: 0-1 in July, 0-1 in March 2026 and 1-1 in December 2025. Drizzle and a 35 km/h wind will not encourage open football either, and the market gives under 2.5 goals a 54% chance. Our pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.76.

Where we could be wrong

The risk is clear enough. Both teams have scored in two of Leeds United's three away games, and with 1.3 conceded per home match, one early goal is all it would take for the game in front of Sunderland to open up. The hosts are juggling the Premier League with the Europa League, and how their defence holds up after a week like that is the hardest thing of all to call.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 25.10
Sunderland
Recent matches: Sunderland
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
22.10Lech PoznańEuropa LeagueA1:1D
18.10BournemouthA0:2xG 0.1–4.4L
15.10TorreenseEuropa LeagueA2:1xG 1.8–0.1W
10.10Brighton & Hove AlbionH0:2xG 0.7–1.4L
20.09Manchester CityA3:5xG 3.6–2.8L
16.09AZ AlkmaarEuropa LeagueH1:0xG 2.9–1.5W
Leeds United
Recent matches: Leeds United
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18.10Manchester UnitedH1:1xG 1.5–0.9D
10.10ArsenalA1:2xG 0.6–2.3L
20.09Crystal PalaceH0:0xG 1.3–1.1D
14.09Newcastle UnitedH4:1W
09.09ChelseaEFL CupA3:6L
05.09Brighton & Hove AlbionA1:1xG 2.5–2.2D

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstSunderlandLeeds UnitedEPL
goals0.9 / 21.3 / 0.91.5
xG1.5 / 21.4 / 1.41.5
shots11.6 / 14.612 / 14.113.8
shots on target4 / 3.74 / 4.34.4
corners4.3 / 4.14 / 4.14.7
fouls11.4 / 14.112.7 / 11.911.5
yellow cards2 / 1.61.9 / 2.42
matches over 2.529%29%
both scored43%71%
clean sheets14%29%
failed to score43%14%
home / away
goals0.3 / 1.31 / 1
average total1.72
matches over 2.50%33%
both scored0%67%
  • Sunderland score less than the league average: 0.9 vs 1.5
  • Leeds United score less than the league average: 1.3 vs 1.5
  • Sunderland: 4 league defeats in a row
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Sunderland, away games only for Leeds United

Head to head

last 10

3–4–3Sunderland wins · draws · Leeds United wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Sunderland vs Leeds United0:130.07.26Premier League Summer Series
Leeds United vs Sunderland0:103.03.26
Sunderland vs Leeds United1:128.12.25
Leeds United vs Sunderland2:117.02.25Championship
Sunderland vs Leeds United2:204.10.24Championship
Leeds United vs Sunderland0:009.04.24Championship
Sunderland vs Leeds United1:012.12.23Championship
Leeds United vs Sunderland1:107.04.18Championship
Sunderland vs Leeds United0:219.08.17Championship
Sunderland vs Leeds United1:004.01.15FA Cup
  • both scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 10

League table

League standings: Premier League
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
6Brentford72-4-113–810DDWDL
7Leeds United72-4-19–610DWDLD
8Everton72-4-18–710DDWDL
18Nottingham Forest71-2-45–95DWLLL
19Sunderland71-1-56–144DLLLL
20Tottenham Hotspur60-3-33–93LDDLD

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Sunderland
  • 0-1512
  • 16-3002
  • 31-4521
  • 46-6015
  • 61-7510
  • 76-9014
Leeds United
  • 0-1510
  • 16-3000
  • 31-4522
  • 46-6020
  • 61-7503
  • 76-9021

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All Premier League results
2:0Liverpool–Brighton & Hove AlbionOur pick:DNB 22.45prediction lost7 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 5 more in the same direction1 2.13X 3.822 3.180:2Crystal Palace–Newcastle UnitedOur pick:BTTS1.51prediction lost7 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 2.87X 3.602 2.380:3Manchester United–BournemouthOur pick:BTTS1.47prediction lost13 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 2.40X 3.442 2.98