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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Atalanta vs Frosinone 4:4: result and odds

Atalanta vs Frosinone finished 4:4; before kick-off the odds were 4.20 on a draw (having opened at 4.17), 1.89 on an Atalanta win and 3.62 on a Frosinone win. The AI models' pick was over 2.5 goals at 1.43, and it won.

published · updated UTC

Atalanta
Frosinone

AI models' pick: Over 2.5 goals

1.43

The market prices this option at 65%

AI models' pick · 6 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 10 chose others

Under half back the bet

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

won+0.43 units
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:111%odds 8.26

2:1 9%2:0 7%1:2 6%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 25.10 11:07

result11.89+0.23X4.20+0.0323.62−1.11
total 3.5O1.85−0.26U1.98+0.25
both to scoreyes1.32−0.15no3.16+0.63
double chance1X1.29+0.10121.23+0.01X21.92−0.31
handicapH1 −12.43+0.37H2 +11.56−0.19

Over 7 days a Frosinone win shortened from 4.73 to 3.62 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementFrosinone 4.73 → 3.62 over 7 days · 81 snapshotsView

The biggest move is an Atalanta win: from 1.66 to 1.89 — 6.6 pp of implied chance, more than any other outcome.

Atalanta1.66 → 1.89Draw4.17 → 4.20Frosinone4.73 → 3.62
1.752.503.004.005.0030 hno data18 Oct19 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 OctDraw 4.20Frosinone 3.62Atalanta 1.89

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenAtalantaDrawFrosinone
1.89+0.064.20+0.063.62−0.28
1.834.14+0.013.90−0.01
1.834.13+0.023.91+0.02
1.83+0.014.11−0.023.89+0.02
1.824.133.87−0.01
1.824.133.88−0.01
1.824.13+0.013.89−0.02
1.824.12−0.013.91+0.01
1.824.13+0.013.90
1.82+0.014.12+0.033.90−0.09
1.81+0.014.09+0.013.99+0.08
1.804.08+0.013.91−0.02
1.80+0.014.07−0.023.93−0.10
1.79+0.014.09−0.014.03
1.78+0.024.10−0.034.03+0.02
1.76+0.014.134.01−0.01
1.75+0.094.13−0.044.02−0.71
18 Oct – 19 Oct · no snapshots for 30 h
1.66opened4.17opened4.73opened
81 snapshots · the prices changed 17 times

How the match went

half-time 3:2

match report · 25.10 16:03

Frosinone led after one minute through Romano Schmid, and the match finished 4-4. Nikola Krstović levelled on 14, Schmid restored the lead on 17, and Éderson José dos Santos equalised from the spot on 33 once VAR confirmed the penalty. Krstović made it 3-2 on 45 minutes, so Atalanta led 3-2 at the break. Giacomo Calò levelled on 48, Elmas put Atalanta 4-3 up two minutes later, and Aleksa Terzić, introduced at 45, equalised on 82. Atalanta's xG was 3.89 against 1.81, yet Frosinone had 24 shots to their 22. Our over 2.5 goals bet, taken at odds of 1.43, landed. Before kick-off the market made Atalanta the favourites on 1.89 and Frosinone 3.62, while over 3.5 goals paid 1.85 and cleared with eight goals.

  1. 1'FrosinoneRomano Schmid0:1
  2. 7'FrosinoneGabriele Bracaglia YC
  3. 14'AtalantaNikola Krstović (Charles De Ketelaere)1:1
  4. 17'FrosinoneRomano Schmid (Farès Ghedjemis)1:2
  5. 28'FrosinoneGiorgi Kvernadze YC
  6. 29'Atalantaon Lorenzo Bernasconi, off Raoul Bellanova
  7. 29'Atalantapenalty confirmed (VAR) · Charles De Ketelaere
  8. 33'AtalantaÉderson José dos Santos penalty2:2
  9. 45'AtalantaNikola Krstović (Davide Zappacosta)3:2
  10. 45'Frosinoneon Aleksa Terzić, off Gabriele Bracaglia
  11. 48'FrosinoneGiacomo Calò (Farès Ghedjemis)3:3
  12. 50'AtalantaElif Elmas (Nikola Krstović)4:3
  13. 62'Atalantaon Mario Pašalić, off Gianluca Gaetano
  14. 62'Atalantaon Nicola Zalewski, off Jonathan Rowe
  15. 65'Frosinoneon Alessio Zerbin, off Giorgi Kvernadze
  16. 65'Frosinoneon Matteo Cichella, off Patrizio Masini
  17. 69'AtalantaÉderson José dos Santos YC
  18. 75'Frosinoneon Ilario Monterisi, off Giorgio Cittadini
  19. 77'Atalantaon Lazar Samardzic, off Charles De Ketelaere
  20. 77'Atalantaon Gianluca Scamacca, off Nikola Krstović
  21. 82'FrosinoneAleksa Terzić (Farès Ghedjemis)4:4
  22. 85'FrosinoneAleksa Terzić YC
  23. 89'Frosinoneon Enzo Tchato, off Anthony Oyono
  24. 90+2'FrosinoneAntonio Raimondo YC
Match stats: Atalanta vs Frosinone
AtalantastatFrosinone
3.89expected goals (xG)1.81
22shots24
9on target10
46%possession54%
8corners9
7fouls13
6saves3
1yellow cards4
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Atalanta

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager M. Sarri

starting XIfeed rating
  • 29M. Carnesecchi6.8
  • 77D. Zappacosta6.5
  • 40R. Obrić6.1
  • 31T. Kristensen6.0
  • 16R. Bellanova6.0
  • 70G. Gaetano6.5
  • 13Éderson6.1
  • 11J. Rowe6.2
  • 17C. De Ketelaere7.0
  • 99E. Elmas8.2
  • 90N. Krstović — highest feed rating in the match9.4
substitutes
  • 53M. Plaia
  • 59N. Zalewskion 62'6.4
  • 57M. Sportiello
  • 51M. Sonzogni
  • 9G. Scamaccaon 77'6.6
  • 10L. Samardžićon 77'5.7
  • 8Mario Pasalicon 62'5.9
  • 41J. Idele
  • 47L. Bernasconion 29'6.3
Frosinone

formation 4-2-3-1 · manager M. Alvini

starting XIfeed rating
  • 22L. Palmisani6.3
  • 79G. Bracaglia5.3
  • 3G. Calvani6.2
  • 2G. Cittadini5.6
  • 20A. Oyono6.0
  • 73P. Masini6.2
  • 14G. Calò7.2
  • 17G. Kvernadze6.0
  • 10R. Schmid8.7
  • 7F. Ghedjemis9.1
  • 9A. Raimondo6.3
substitutes
  • 5W. Amey
  • 89T. Bobček
  • 11D. Bîrligea
  • 16Matteo Cichellaon 65'5.9
  • 91S. Desplanches
  • 34A. El Azzouzi
  • 74Omar Fayed
  • 40S. Fini
  • 70L. Hasa
  • 30I. Monterision 75'5.7
  • 12M. Pisseri
  • 90E. Tchatoon 89'5.8
  • 71A. Terzićon 45'6.9
  • 25K. Akpoguma
  • 24A. Zerbinon 65'6.6

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won. 3 more bet on Atalanta −1 — the bet lost. The other 7 chose other bets: both teams to score, a Frosinone handicap and an Atalanta handicap.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC

Atalanta's home games have been lively this season: three of their four went over 2.5 goals, at an average of 2.8 goals per match, with 1.8 scored by the hosts and one conceded. Frosinone's away trips are no quieter — 2.7 goals a game on average, and two thirds of them have gone over 2.5 goals. Across five rounds they have scored 10 and conceded 8, firing in a high 19.8 shots per game. Atalanta's six matches have brought 10 goals scored and 11 conceded, so there is plenty happening at both ends, and the market rates this bet at 65%.

Where we could be wrong

There is a case the other way. A third of Frosinone's away matches have ended without them conceding, and the same share without a goal of their own — they can shut up shop, and they can simply fail to find a way through. Add the drizzle in Bergamo and the absence of Hien from the Atalanta defence, and the game could turn cautious, as the 2016 meeting did when it finished as a goalless draw.

Even so, our pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.43.

  • 6 of 16 AI models back this bet: it is the most common answer, but more than half chose something else.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Injuries and suspensions

snapshot 18.10 20:06
Atalanta
  • K. SulemanaFW · 36 matches in 2025/26jumpers kneeout
  • I. HienDF · 39 matches in 2025/26muscle bruiseout
Frosinone

no absences listed

managers: M. Sarri · M. Alvini · main formations this season: 4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 25.10
Atalanta
Recent matches: Atalanta
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
22.10AjaxConference LeagueA0:2L
18.10MilanA2:3xG 1.7–2.5L
15.10PafosConference LeagueH3:1xG 3.5–0.9W
12.10VeneziaH3:1xG 2.3–2.5W
20.09JuventusA0:2xG 0.6–1.3L
12.09CagliariH1:2xG 1.3–1.1L
Frosinone
Recent matches: Frosinone
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
16.10SassuoloH4:2xG 2.6–2.0W
10.10NapoliA0:3xG 1.0–3.1L
02.10Beneventoclub friendlyH2:1W
20.09ComoH2:0xG 2.2–2.1W
12.09GenoaA1:1xG 1.9–1.9D
06.09VeneziaH3:2xG 1.9–2.2W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstAtalantaFrosinoneSerie A
goals1.4 / 1.61.9 / 1.31.5
xG1.1 / 2.11.5 / 2.21.5
shots13.3 / 1817.4 / 19.614.6
shots on target4.6 / 5.95.6 / 5.74.9
corners3.4 / 55.4 / 6.94.7
fouls10.3 / 8.416 / 12.110.9
yellow cards0.9 / 0.71.7 / 2.41.7
matches over 2.571%57%
both scored71%43%
clean sheets14%29%
failed to score14%29%
home / away
goals1.8 / 11.3 / 1.3
average total2.82.7
matches over 2.575%67%
both scored75%33%
  • Frosinone score more than the league average: 1.9 vs 1.5
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Atalanta, away games only for Frosinone

Head to head

last 6

4–1–1Atalanta wins · draws · Frosinone wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Atalanta vs Frosinone5:015.01.24
Frosinone vs Atalanta2:126.08.23
Frosinone vs Atalanta0:520.01.19
Atalanta vs Frosinone4:020.08.18
Frosinone vs Atalanta0:023.01.16
Atalanta vs Frosinone2:030.08.15
  • both scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 6

League table

League standings: Serie A
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
5Como74-2-112–714WWLDW
6Frosinone74-1-213–913WDWLW
7Cagliari64-1-16–313LWWWD
9Napoli73-1-310–710LWDWL
10Atalanta73-0-410–119LLLWL
11Lecce73-0-49–129LWLLW

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Atalanta
  • 0-1530
  • 16-3012
  • 31-4511
  • 46-6011
  • 61-7511
  • 76-9013
Frosinone
  • 0-1531
  • 16-3042
  • 31-4532
  • 46-6011
  • 61-7512
  • 76-9011

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All Serie A results
1:0Genoa–VeneziaOur pick:BTTS1.72prediction lost12 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 2.20X 3.272 3.472:1Inter–FiorentinaOur pick:H1 (−1.5)2.00prediction lost10 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction1 1.36X 5.502 7.880:2Lecce–JuventusOur pick:H2 (−1)1.71prediction won9 of 15 on this bet or a bolder one · 2 more in the same direction1 6.25X 4.162 1.55