FINISHED
Genoa vs Venezia 1:0: result and odds
Genoa vs Venezia finished 1:0; before kick-off the odds were 2.20 on a Genoa win (having opened at 2.07), 3.47 on a Venezia win and 3.27 on a draw. The AI models' pick was both teams to score at 1.72, and it lost.
- Referee: Simone Sozza
- Serie A, matchday 8 of 38
- +18°, overcast, wind 15 km/h
- Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Both teams to score
1.72The market prices this option at 54%
AI models' pick · 12 of 16 back this bet or a bolder one in the same direction, 4 chose others
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 9%1:0 8% — this score came in0:0 8%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 6 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 7 days a Venezia win shortened from 3.63 to 3.47 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — both teams score: 1.72 → 1.73 since we publishedView
The biggest move is both teams score: from 1.72 to 1.73 — 0.7 pp of implied chance, more than any other outcome.
Price changes
| When | Yes · our bet | No |
|---|---|---|
| 1.73−0.01 | 2.02+0.01 | |
| 1.74−0.01 | 2.01+0.02 | |
| 1.75+0.01 | 1.99−0.02 | |
| 1.74+0.01 | 2.01 | |
| 1.73 | 2.01−0.01 | |
| 1.73−0.01 | 2.02+0.01 | |
| 1.74−0.01 | 2.01+0.02 | |
| 1.75+0.03 | 1.99−0.03 | |
| 1.72+0.01 | 2.02−0.02 | |
| 1.71+0.01 | 2.04 | |
| 1.70−0.02 | 2.04+0.02 | |
| 18 Oct – 19 Oct · no snapshots for 30 h | ||
| We published both teams score at 1.72 | ||
| 1.72opened | 2.02opened | |
How the match went
Mikael Ellertsson scored the only goal on 25 minutes, assisted by Stephan El Shaarawy, and Genoa led 1-0 at the break and kept it that way. The numbers belonged to Venezia: 19 shots to seven, 1.82 xG against 0.41, ten corners to two. Genoa still made five saves to Venezia's three, and only five of Venezia's shots were on target. Sebastian Otoa's yellow card on 55 minutes was the only booking of the match. Genoa were 2.20 to win before kick-off, the draw 3.27, Venezia 3.47. One goal left the total below the 2.5 line. Our both-teams-to-score bet, backed at 1.72, went down because Venezia never scored.
- 25'Mikael Ellertsson (Stephan El Shaarawy)1:0
- 55'Sebastian Otoa YC
- 62'on Morten Frendrup, off Junior Messias
- 62'on Lorenzo Colombo, off Stephan El Shaarawy
- 70'on Alessandro Marcandalli, off Sebastian Otoa
- 71'on Pasquale Mazzocchi, off Ridgeciano Haps
- 71'on Matteo Dagasso, off Toma Bašić
- 79'on Albion Rrahmani, off Antoine Hainaut
- 81'on David Puczka, off Mario Mitaj
- 81'on Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho, off Samuel Wiafe
- 87'on Lion Lauberbach, off Simon Sohm
| Genoa | stat | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| 0.41 | expected goals (xG) | 1.82 |
| 7 | shots | 19 |
| 4 | on target | 5 |
| 45% | possession | 55% |
| 2 | corners | 10 |
| 12 | fouls | 11 |
| 5 | saves | 3 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 0 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Genoa- 1J. Bijlow7.8
- 22J. Vásquez7.4
- 5L. Østigård7.4
- 34S. Otoa6.9
- 2M. Mitaj7.2
- 71S. Wiafe6.7
- 25H. Traorè7.2
- 77M. Ellertsson — highest feed rating in the match8.0
- 92S. El Shaarawy7.6
- 10Junior Messias6.5
- 18M. Osmajić6.5
- 27A. Marcandallion 70'7.0
- 99F. Stolz
- 39D. Sommariva
- 16C. Drameh
- 32M. Frendrupon 62'6.8
- 4Alexsandro Amorimon 81'7.0
- 11E. Meichtry
- 8T. Baldanzi
- 20S. Sabelli
- 21Nikita Solodchenko
- 9Vítinha
- 29L. Colomboon 62'6.7
- 31D. Puczkaon 81'7.1
- 14Lukas Klišys
Venezia- 1F. Stanković6.5
- 15Juan Jesus6.8
- 2M. Moreno7.1
- 25R. Halhal6.9
- 5R. Haps7.0
- 26T. Bašić6.6
- 19S. Sohm6.7
- 71Kike Pérez6.6
- 18A. Hainaut6.3
- 45A. Adams6.5
- 10J. Yeboah6.1
- 17A. Bella-Kotchap
- 96L. Montipò
- 3J. Schingtienne
- 77Toni Fernández
- 8Lamine Dabo
- 30M. Dagassoon 71'7.2
- 56K. Lisman
- 20R. Sagrado
- 21Þ. Helgason
- 70P. Mazzocchion 71'6.2
- 6G. Busio
- 32A. Duncan
- 7A. Rrahmanion 79'6.3
- 29L. Lauberbachon 87'6.4
- 95A. Gomes
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on both teams to score — the bet lost. 2 more bet on a Genoa win — the bet won. The other 2 chose a bet each: double chance and a total-goals bet.
- 12 of 16BTTSour betodds 1.72ClaudeDeepSeek
Gemini
GrokKimiQwenDeepSeek Flash
GLMMiniMaxMistralXiaomi MiMo
Dots3-Notelost - 2 of 161odds 2.07ChatGPTNemotron Superwon
- 1 of 161Xodds 1.29
Sonarwon - 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.90Nemotron Ultralost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC
Neither Genoa nor Venezia have kept a clean sheet this season. Genoa have conceded in all four of their home matches, and both teams scored in three of them, while Venezia have seen goals at both ends in two of their three games on the road. The visitors ship 2.7 goals per away trip and still answer with a goal of their own; the home defence lets in two a game. The table pushes both sides forward too — four points for Genoa, three for Venezia after seven rounds of Serie A, so sitting back makes little sense for either of them. The market rates both teams scoring at around 54%, and we're backing both teams to score at 1.72.
Where we could be wrong
The previous meetings give pause. Both of the last Serie A encounters finished 2-0, in February 2025 in Genoa and in September 2024 in Venezia, and each time one side was kept out. Genoa's home attack is modest as well, a goal a game.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Genoa
L. VenturinoFW · 4 matches in 2025/26jumpers kneeout
Venezia
M. ŠverkoDF · 26 matches in 2025/26hip injuryout
managers: D. De Rossi · D. Nicola · main formations this season: 3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2
Recent matches
Genoa| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Roma | A | 0:2xG 0.5–1.4 | L |
| 10.10 | Fiorentina | H | 2:1xG 1.5–0.8 | W |
| 02.10 | Rapidclub friendly | A | 0:2 | L |
| 20.09 | Parma | A | 1:2xG 0.7–0.5 | L |
| 15.09 | SudtirolCoppa Italia | H | 1:0 | W |
| 12.09 | Frosinone | H | 1:1xG 1.9–1.9 | D |
Venezia| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.10 | Napoli | H | 1:0xG 0.7–2.5 | W |
| 12.10 | Atalanta | A | 1:3xG 2.5–2.3 | L |
| 19.09 | Lazio | H | 0:2xG 1.9–1.6 | L |
| 11.09 | Fiorentina | H | 2:4xG 0.5–3.3 | L |
| 06.09 | Frosinone | A | 2:3xG 2.2–1.9 | L |
| 02.09 | UdineseCoppa Italia | A | 1:2 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Serie A |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 0.7 / 1.9 | 0.9 / 2.3 | 1.5 |
| xG | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 2.3 | 1.5 |
| shots | 11.1 / 15.3 | 14 / 17.6 | 14.6 |
| shots on target | 2.9 / 4.4 | 4.3 / 7.3 | 4.9 |
| corners | 4.4 / 4.7 | 3.7 / 5.1 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 9.7 / 11.7 | 10.1 / 10.3 | 10.9 |
| yellow cards | 2.9 / 1.9 | 2.9 / 1 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| both scored | 57% | 43% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 2 | 1 / 2.7 | |
| average total | 3 | 3.7 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| both scored | 75% | 67% | |
- Genoa score less than the league average: 0.7 vs 1.5
- Venezia score less than the league average: 0.9 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Genoa, away games only for Venezia
Head to head
4–2–2Genoa wins · draws · Venezia wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa vs Venezia | 2:0 | 17.02.25 | |
| Venezia vs Genoa | 2:0 | 21.09.24 | |
| Venezia vs Genoa | 1:3 | 20.07.24 | club friendly |
| Genoa vs Venezia | 1:4 | 22.07.23 | club friendly |
| Genoa vs Venezia | 1:0 | 16.01.23 | Serie B |
| Venezia vs Genoa | 1:2 | 14.08.22 | Serie B |
| Venezia vs Genoa | 1:1 | 20.02.22 | |
| Genoa vs Venezia | 0:0 | 31.10.21 |
- both scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 3 of 8
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Udinese | 7 | 1-1-5 | 9–16 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Genoa | 7 | 1-1-5 | 5–13 | 4 | LDLWL |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1-1-5 | 8–17 | 4 | LWDLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1-0-6 | 6–16 | 3 | LLLLW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1521
- 16-3013
- 31-4502
- 46-6011
- 61-7521
- 76-9004
- 0-1502
- 16-3014
- 31-4511
- 46-6013
- 61-7522
- 76-9023
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
