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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Inter vs Fiorentina 2:1: result and odds

Inter vs Fiorentina finished 2:1; before kick-off the odds were 1.36 on an Inter win (having opened at 1.37), 7.88 on a Fiorentina win and 5.50 on a draw. The AI models' pick was Inter −1.5 handicap at 2.00, and it lost.

published · updated UTC

Inter
Fiorentina

AI models' pick: Inter −1.5 handicap

2.00

The market prices this option at 48%

AI models' pick · 10 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

lost−1.00 unitsclosing odds1.94CLV+3%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

2:110%odds 7.85 — this score came in

1:1 9%2:0 9%3:1 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 25.10 11:07

result11.36−0.01X5.50+0.3227.88+0.46
total 3.5O2.04−0.07U1.79+0.05
both to scoreyes1.63−0.01no2.17+0.02
double chance1X1.09−0.01121.14−0.01X23.24+0.20
handicapH1 −1.51.94 — matches our bet−0.06H2 +1.51.88+0.05

Over 7 days a Fiorentina win drifted from 7.42 to 7.88 — fewer bets on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Inter −1.5: 2.00 → 1.94 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (Inter −1.5 handicap) has shortened from 2.00 to 1.94: the market now rates it as more likely.

Inter −1.52.00 → 1.94our betFiorentina +1.51.83 → 1.88
1.801.902.0030 hno data18 Oct19 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 OctWe published · 2.00Inter −1.5 1.94Fiorentina +1.5 1.88

Price changes

Price changes in the Handicap −1.5 market
WhenInter −1.5 · our betFiorentina +1.5
1.94+0.021.88−0.02
1.92+0.011.90
1.91−0.031.90+0.02
1.94−0.011.88+0.01
1.95+0.021.87−0.01
1.93−0.011.88−0.01
1.94−0.021.89+0.01
1.96+0.021.88
1.94−0.011.88+0.01
1.95−0.051.87+0.04
18 Oct – 19 Oct · no snapshots for 30 h
We published Inter −1.5 handicap at 2.00
2.00opened1.83opened
83 snapshots · the prices changed 10 times

How the match went

half-time 0:0

match report · 25.10 13:44

Two goals in added time gave Inter a 2-1 win over Fiorentina. It was 0-0 at half-time, and Álex Jiménez put the visitors in front on 65 minutes from a Nicolo Fagioli assist. Marcus Thuram levelled at 90+1 with Andy Diouf providing the pass, then Piotr Zieliński scored a penalty at 90+7. The numbers belonged to Inter: 3.44 xG against 0.25, and 33 shots to seven, with Fiorentina's keeper making eight saves. Our Inter -1.5 handicap bet, at odds of 2.00, went down, since a one-goal win was not enough. Before kick-off the market had Inter to win at 1.36. Both teams to score was 1.63 and landed, while three goals meant the 3.5 market finished under.

  1. 51'Fiorentinaon Viery, off Marin Pongračić
  2. 64'Interon Ange-Yoan Bonny, off Pio Esposito
  3. 65'FiorentinaÁlex Jiménez (Nicolo Fagioli)0:1
  4. 70'FiorentinaViery YC
  5. 75'Fiorentinaon Wilfried Gnonto, off Franco Mastantuono
  6. 75'Fiorentinaon Domilson Dodo, off Álex Jiménez
  7. 77'Interon Federico Dimarco, off Alessandro Bastoni
  8. 78'Interon Piotr Zieliński, off Hakan Çalhanoğlu
  9. 78'Interon Petar Sučić, off Henrikh Mkhitaryan
  10. 83'Fiorentinaon Beto, off Mateo Pellegrino
  11. 83'Fiorentinaon João Mário, off Alieu Njie
  12. 85'Interon Mattheo Lavelli, off Nicolò Barella
  13. 90+1'InterMarcus Thuram (Andy Diouf)1:1
  14. 90+5'FiorentinaVíctor Valdepeñas Talavera YC
  15. 90+7'InterPiotr Zieliński penalty2:1
  16. 90+11'FiorentinaDomilson Dodo YC
Match stats: Inter vs Fiorentina
InterstatFiorentina
3.44expected goals (xG)0.25
33shots7
11on target2
63%possession37%
6corners1
13fouls14
1saves8
0yellow cards3
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Inter

formation 3-5-2 · manager C. Chivu

starting XIfeed rating
  • 49I. Provedel6.6
  • 95A. Bastoni6.9
  • 25M. Akanji7.2
  • 31Y. Bisseck7.0
  • 30Carlos Augusto7.2
  • 22H. Mkhitaryan6.5
  • 20H. Çalhanoğlu7.1
  • 23N. Barella6.9
  • 17A. Diouf7.7
  • 94F. Esposito6.3
  • 9M. Thuram — highest feed rating in the match8.2
substitutes
  • 8P. Sučićon 78'6.6
  • 99D. Spence
  • 5A. Stanković
  • 48M. Mosconi
  • 14A. Bonnyon 64'7.1
  • 46L. Bovio
  • 12R. Di Gennaro
  • 32F. Dimarcoon 77'6.7
  • 51L. Jakirović
  • 53M. Lavellion 85'6.7
  • 7P. Zielińskion 78'7.8
  • 1Josep Martínez
Fiorentina

formation 4-3-3 · manager P. Vanoli

starting XIfeed rating
  • 43David de Gea7.0
  • 21Valde6.5
  • 5M. Pongračić6.8
  • 3R. Drăgușin6.8
  • 20Álex Jiménez7.3
  • 4M. Brescianini5.7
  • 44N. Fagioli7.4
  • 27C. Ndour6.4
  • 25A. Njie6.5
  • 32Mateo Pellegrino6.4
  • 30Franco Mastantuono6.3
substitutes
  • 23Betoon 83'6.3
  • 33Vieryon 51'6.1
  • 53O. Christensen
  • 2Dodôon 75'6.7
  • 29W. Gnontoon 75'6.9
  • 42C. Inao Oulaï
  • 17João Márioon 83'6.6
  • 19L. Lezzerini
  • 28Pote
  • 74Arnis Ademi
  • 72B. Mazzeo
  • 73Antonio Pirrò

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on Inter −1.5 — the bet lost. One more chose a close bet in the same direction: an Inter win. 4 more bet on over 2.5 goals — the bet won. One more bet on over 3.5 goals.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:55 UTC

Inter are scoring 3.8 goals a game at home while conceding 1.5, and all four of their home matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Fiorentina travel to Milan 19th in Serie A with four points, shipping 2.7 per away game, and they have not kept a clean sheet once all season, with three defeats in their last five. The prices tell the same story: 1.37 on the hosts against 7.42 on the visitors, which works out at around 70% for an Inter win. Ten previous meetings have brought Inter six wins and two draws, and a year ago at San Siro Inter won 3-0.

Where we could be wrong

Fiorentina do still manage 1.7 goals per away game, and both teams scored in two of their three trips. Inter concede at home as well, and a single goal in reply would already see the handicap bet lose. The hosts also have the Champions League in their schedule, so changes to the starting line-up are perfectly possible. Even so, we're backing the Inter -1.5 handicap at 2.00.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Injuries and suspensions

snapshot 18.10 20:06
Inter

no absences listed

Fiorentina
  • R. SottilFW · 4 matches in 2025/26back injuryout

managers: C. Chivu · P. Vanoli · main formations this season: 3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 25.10
Inter
Recent matches: Inter
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
21.10Shakhtar DonetskChampions LeagueH1:0W
17.10BolognaA3:1xG 3.2–1.1W
13.10Club BruggeChampions LeagueH3:4xG 4.3–4.3L
10.10ParmaH3:0xG 2.4–0.5W
03.10Lumezzaneclub friendlyH2:0W
19.09RomaA2:2D
Fiorentina
Recent matches: Fiorentina
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18.10ComoH1:3xG 2.3–1.8L
10.10GenoaA1:2xG 0.8–1.5L
20.09NapoliH1:1xG 1.1–1.4D
15.09PisaCoppa ItaliaH3:0W
11.09VeneziaA4:2xG 3.3–0.5W
05.09TorinoH1:2xG 1.7–0.6L

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstInterFiorentinaSerie A
goals3 / 1.31.1 / 2.41.5
xG2.8 / 1.21.6 / 1.31.5
shots21.7 / 1116.6 / 12.114.6
shots on target7.3 / 3.65.4 / 5.44.9
corners5.7 / 3.45.3 / 3.94.7
fouls8.1 / 9.411 / 12.610.9
yellow cards1.6 / 22 / 2.11.7
matches over 2.586%86%
both scored71%71%
clean sheets29%0%
failed to score0%29%
home / away
goals3.8 / 1.51.7 / 2.7
average total5.34.3
matches over 2.5100%100%
both scored75%67%
  • Inter score more than the league average: 3 vs 1.5
  • Fiorentina score less than the league average: 1.1 vs 1.5
  • Inter: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Inter, away games only for Fiorentina

Head to head

last 10

6–2–2Inter wins · draws · Fiorentina wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Fiorentina vs Inter1:122.03.26
Inter vs Fiorentina3:029.10.25
Inter vs Fiorentina2:110.02.25
Fiorentina vs Inter3:006.02.25
Fiorentina vs Inter0:128.01.24
Inter vs Fiorentina4:003.09.23
Fiorentina vs Inter1:224.05.23Coppa Italia
Inter vs Fiorentina0:101.04.23
Fiorentina vs Inter3:422.10.22
Inter vs Fiorentina1:119.03.22
  • both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 10

League table

League standings: Serie A
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
1Inter76-1-021–919WWDWW
2Roma75-2-016–317WWDDW
18Genoa71-1-55–134LDLWL
19Fiorentina71-1-58–174LWDLL
20Venezia71-0-66–163LLLLW

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10

Goals by minute

league season
Inter
  • 0-1533
  • 16-3022
  • 31-4531
  • 46-6052
  • 61-7530
  • 76-9051
Fiorentina
  • 0-1502
  • 16-3024
  • 31-4513
  • 46-6023
  • 61-7513
  • 76-9013

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All Serie A results
4:4Atalanta–FrosinoneOur pick:O 2.51.43prediction won6 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.89X 4.202 3.621:0Genoa–VeneziaOur pick:BTTS1.72prediction lost12 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 2.20X 3.272 3.470:2Lecce–JuventusOur pick:H2 (−1)1.71prediction won9 of 15 on this bet or a bolder one · 2 more in the same direction1 6.25X 4.162 1.55