FINISHED
Como vs Sassuolo 2:0: result and odds
Como vs Sassuolo finished 2:0; before kick-off the odds were 1.49 on a Como win (having opened at 1.44), 5.84 on a Sassuolo win and 4.84 on a draw. The AI models' pick was Como −1.5 handicap at 2.12, and it won.
- Referee: Davide Di Marco
- Serie A, matchday 8 of 38
- +17°, clear
- Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Como −1.5 handicap
2.12The market prices this option at 45%
AI models' pick · 10 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 3 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
2:1 10%2:0 9% — this score came in1:0 7%
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 5 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 6 days a Sassuolo win shortened from 6.67 to 5.84 — money is coming in on the away side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Como −1.5: 2.12 → 2.22 since we publishedView
Since we published, our bet (Como −1.5 handicap) has drifted from 2.12 to 2.22: the market now rates it as less likely.
Price changes
| When | Como −1.5 · our bet | Sassuolo +1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.22+0.02 | 1.67 | |
| 2.20+0.01 | 1.67−0.01 | |
| 2.19−0.01 | 1.68+0.01 | |
| 2.20−0.03 | 1.67+0.02 | |
| 2.23−0.02 | 1.65+0.01 | |
| 2.25−0.01 | 1.64−0.01 | |
| 2.26−0.01 | 1.65+0.01 | |
| 2.27+0.01 | 1.64 | |
| 2.26−0.04 | 1.64+0.01 | |
| 21 Oct – 22 Oct · no snapshots for 18 h | ||
| 2.30+0.13 | 1.63−0.07 | |
| 2.17+0.05 | 1.70−0.02 | |
| 18 Oct – 19 Oct · no snapshots for 30 h | ||
| We published Como −1.5 handicap at 2.12 | ||
| 2.12first snapshot | 1.72first snapshot | |
How the match went
Anastasios Douvikas scored twice after the break and Como beat Sassuolo 2-0. It was 0-0 at half-time, and Como made three changes at the interval. Douvikas struck on 49 minutes from a Maxence Caqueret assist, then again on 60 from Kaiki Bruno's. Sassuolo did not manage a shot on target all game, against six for Como, who had 1.69 xG to 0.26 and 14 shots to seven. Our Como -1.5 handicap bet, backed at 2.12, landed. Before kick-off the market had Como odds-on at 1.49, with the draw on 4.84 and Sassuolo 5.84, and the 2-0 scoreline was on offer at 8.16. The game finished below the 3.5 goal line, and with Sassuolo scoreless, both teams to score was a no.
- 45'on Luis Milla, off Samuele Ricci
- 45'on Jayden Addai, off Martin Baturina
- 45'on Jacobo Ramón, off Willy Kambwala
- 49'Anastasios Douvikas (Maxence Caqueret)1:0
- 60'Anastasios Douvikas (Kaiki Bruno)2:0
- 62'on Josh Doig, off Rafael Obrador
- 62'on Armand Lauriente, off Benjamin Dominguez
- 62'on Luca Lipani, off Nemanja Matić
- 63'Domenico Berardi YC
- 65'Yan Couto YC
- 67'on Ivan Smolcic, off Yan Couto
- 74'on Cristian Volpato, off Domenico Berardi
- 86'on Sebastiano Esposito, off Vasilije Adzic
- 87'Ignace Van der Brempt YC
- 89'on Adrian Lahdo, off Lucas Da Cunha
- 90+1'Luis Milla YC
| Como | stat | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| 1.69 | expected goals (xG) | 0.26 |
| 14 | shots | 7 |
| 6 | on target | 0 |
| 56% | possession | 44% |
| 6 | corners | 4 |
| 14 | fouls | 10 |
| 0 | saves | 4 |
| 2 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Como- 1J. Butez6.5
- 16Kaiki7.8
- 2M. Kempf7.5
- 53Willy Kambwala Ndengushi7.0
- 27Yan Couto7.1
- 5M. Perrone7.6
- 21S. Ricci7.3
- 20M. Baturina7.2
- 7L. da Cunha6.5
- 8M. Caqueret7.7
- 9T. Douvikas — highest feed rating in the match9.0
- 13A. Dossena
- 18E. Goldaniga
- 42J. Addaion 45'6.8
- 15A. Lahdoon 89'6.8
- 6Luis Millaon 45'6.9
- 10N. Paz
- 4Jacobo Ramón Naveroson 45'7.4
- 97Robert Sánchez
- 28I. Smolčićon 67'7.2
- 3Álex Valle
- 22M. Vigorito
Sassuolo- 80S. Turati6.8
- 33Rafael Obrador6.7
- 5Fali Candé6.7
- 15D. Ćaleta-Car6.8
- 20I. Van der Brempt6.0
- 18N. Matić6.2
- 17Vasilije Adžić6.5
- 25B. Domínguez6.4
- 50D. Bakola6.5
- 10D. Berardi5.8
- 9K. Bowie6.6
- 94S. Espositoon 86'6.3
- 8A. Ghion
- 35L. Lipanion 62'5.9
- 49A. Murić
- 26C. Odenthal
- 77N. Pierini
- 12G. Satalino
- 19L. Skjellerup
- 55I. Sulemana
- 42K. Thorstvedt
- 7C. Volpatoon 74'6.1
- 6S. Walukiewicz
- 3J. Doigon 62'6.4
- 46S. Cinquegrano
- 45A. Laurientéon 62'6.2
AI prediction and analysis
The largest group of AI models bet on Como −1.5 — the bet won. 7 more chose close bets in the same direction: Como −1 and a Como win. 2 more bet on both teams to score — the bet lost. One more bet on over 2.5 goals.
- 6 of 16H1 (−1.5)our betodds 2.12
GeminiKimiQwen
GLMMiniMaxMistralwon - 4 of 16H1 (−1)same directionodds 1.63ChatGPT
GrokDeepSeek FlashNemotron Ultrawon - 3 of 161same directionodds 1.44
Sonar
Dots3-NoteNemotron Superwon - 2 of 16BTTSodds 1.63ClaudeXiaomi MiMolost
- 1 of 16O 2.5odds 1.46DeepSeeklost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 19.10 at 08:54 UTC
Como sit fourth with 14 points after seven rounds, while Sassuolo are twelfth with eight. The gap is widest in the visitors' away numbers: no wins in four trips, an average of 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded, and not one match in which they kept a clean sheet. Sassuolo will also be without five players, among them Kone, who has a broken leg (six goals last season), and defender Kande, who played 13 matches. In autumn 2025 Como beat this opponent twice by a wide margin, 2-0 in the league in November and 3-0 in the Coppa Italia in September. This season the hosts have 11 goals scored and eight conceded, with 58.3% possession and 19.3 shots per game.
Where we could be wrong
Como's own games at the Giuseppe Sinigaglia have been quiet affairs, though: a goal a game on average across two home matches, and in half of them they did not score at all. The most recent meeting, back in April 2026, went to Sassuolo, who won 2-1, and on the road the visitors have scored on every trip, so a winning margin of two or more goals may not materialise. Add the Champions League schedule and Fabregas has every reason to rest his first-choice men. Our pick is the Como -1.5 handicap at 2.12.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Comono absences listed
Sassuolo
I. KonéMF · 6 goals in 2025/26broken legout
E. PieragnoloDF · 1 match in 2025/26jumpers kneeout
Fali CandéDF · 13 matches in 2025/26jumpers kneeout
D. BolocaMF · 4 matches in 2025/26muscle bruiseout
Y. PazDFjumpers kneeout
managers: Cesc Fàbregas · A. Aquilani · main formations this season: 4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3
Recent matches
Como| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.10 | Manchester UnitedChampions League | H | 4:1 | W |
| 18.10 | Fiorentina | A | 3:1xG 1.8–2.3 | W |
| 14.10 | FeyenoordChampions League | A | 2:3xG 1.3–0.7 | L |
| 11.10 | Roma | H | 0:0xG 1.4–1.1 | D |
| 20.09 | Frosinone | A | 0:2xG 2.1–2.2 | L |
| 14.09 | Parma | H | 2:1xG 3.0–1.1 | W |
Sassuolo| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.10 | Frosinone | A | 2:4xG 2.0–2.6 | L |
| 11.10 | Milan | H | 1:1xG 1.2–1.2 | D |
| 18.09 | Monza | A | 1:2xG 1.5–1.5 | L |
| 13.09 | Juventus | H | 3:2xG 1.0–1.1 | W |
| 06.09 | Bologna | A | 2:2xG 1.6–1.9 | D |
| 02.09 | FrosinoneCoppa Italia | H | 1:1pens | W |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Serie A |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.7 / 1 | 1.7 / 2 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 1.4 | 1.5 |
| shots | 21.7 / 14.7 | 15.7 / 15.9 | 14.6 |
| shots on target | 6.9 / 3.7 | 6.4 / 6.6 | 4.9 |
| corners | 7.3 / 4.6 | 4.3 / 6.3 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 8.6 / 10.9 | 9.7 / 11.7 | 10.9 |
| yellow cards | 1.3 / 2 | 1.3 / 2 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| both scored | 71% | 100% | |
| clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 1 / 0.5 | 1.5 / 2.5 | |
| average total | 1.5 | 4 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| both scored | 50% | 100% | |
- Como shoot more often than the league average: 21.7 shots vs 14.6
- Sassuolo score more than the league average: 1.7 vs 1.5
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Como, away games only for Sassuolo
Head to head
2–0–1Como wins · draws · Sassuolo wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo vs Como | 2:1 | 17.04.26 | |
| Como vs Sassuolo | 2:0 | 28.11.25 | |
| Como vs Sassuolo | 3:0 | 24.09.25 | Coppa Italia |
- both scored in 1 of the last 3 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 2 of 3
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Milan | 7 | 4-3-0 | 14–7 | 15 | DDWDW |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 4-2-1 | 12–7 | 14 | WWLDW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4-1-2 | 13–9 | 13 | WDWLW |
| 11 | Lecce | 7 | 3-0-4 | 9–12 | 9 | LWLLW |
| 12 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2-2-3 | 12–14 | 8 | DWLDL |
| 13 | Torino | 6 | 2-1-3 | 7–9 | 7 | LWLDW |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 18.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1501
- 16-3043
- 31-4521
- 46-6010
- 61-7500
- 76-9021
- 0-1512
- 16-3012
- 31-4521
- 46-6023
- 61-7523
- 76-9043
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
