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data updated 27.10 08:07

31 Oct

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: AI betting tips and pick

On 31 October, Bayern Munich host Borussia Dortmund. The AI models' pick is Bayern Munich −1.5 handicap at 1.80; Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 5.

published · updated UTC

Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund

AI models' pick: Bayern Munich −1.5 handicap

1.80

The market prices this option at 53%

Now 1.86 · 1.80 when published

AI models' pick · 7 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction

Under half back the bet

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

Why this betAll odds

likely score

2:19%odds 9.33

3:1 8%1:1 8%2:0 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 7 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

Match odds

last line update 27.10 03:17

result11.35+0.01X5.63−0.2227.00−0.26
total 4.5O2.43+0.19U1.56−0.10
both to scoreyes1.42+0.04no2.71−0.12
double chance1X1.10121.13X23.17−0.13
handicapH1 −1.51.86 — matches our bet+0.06H2 +1.51.98−0.06

Over 2 days a Borussia Dortmund win shortened from 7.26 to 7.00 — money is coming in on the away side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Bayern Munich −1.5: 1.80 → 1.86 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (Bayern Munich −1.5 handicap) has drifted from 1.80 to 1.86: the market now rates it as less likely.

Bayern Munich −1.51.80 → 1.86our betBorussia Dortmund +1.52.04 → 1.98
1.801.902.002.1018 hno data25 Oct26 Oct27 OctWe published · 1.80Borussia Dortmund +1.5 1.98Bayern Munich −1.5 1.86

Price changes

Price changes in the Handicap −1.5 market
WhenBayern Munich −1.5 · our betBorussia Dortmund +1.5
1.861.98−0.01
1.86+0.021.99−0.01
25 Oct – 26 Oct · no snapshots for 18 h
1.84+0.042.00−0.04
We published Bayern Munich −1.5 handicap at 1.80
1.80opened2.04opened
7 snapshots · the prices changed 3 times

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models went for Bayern Munich −1.5. 2 more chose close bets in the same direction: a Bayern Munich win and Bayern Munich −2.5. 2 more each for both teams to score, for over 3.5 goals and for at least one side failing to score. The other 2 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet and a Borussia Dortmund handicap.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 25.10 at 13:02 UTC

Bayern Munich have won all three of their home Bundesliga matches this season, scoring six per game on average and conceding 0.7. Across their last five games in all competitions they have scored 17 and conceded four. Borussia Dortmund's away numbers are far more modest: 1.3 goals a game, and only one of their three trips has produced more than 2.5 goals in total. The last ten meetings read six wins, three draws and one defeat for the Munich side, and the market rates the Bayern Munich -1.5 handicap at 53%.

The obvious worry is that the Klassiker has not been settled by a wide margin in a long while. The last five were decided by one goal at most, including 2-1 in October 2025 and 1-2 in the Supercup in August. Dortmund sit second on the same 14 points, concede 0.7 per away game and have already kept five clean sheets this season, so Kovac's compact side has the tools to keep this within one goal.

Where we could be wrong

We still side with the hosts: our pick is the Bayern Munich -1.5 handicap at 1.80, which needs a home win by two or more goals.

  • 7 of 16 AI models back this bet and 1 more chose a close bet in the same direction: it is the most common answer, but the other half chose something else.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 27.10
Bayern Munich
Recent matches: Bayern Munich
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
25.10FreiburgA3:1W
21.10ArsenalChampions LeagueH2:2xG 2.5–1.7D
17.10LeipzigH6:1xG 3.5–0.9W
13.10VikingChampions LeagueA3:3xG 3.5–0.6D
10.10AugsburgA2:2xG 5.0–2.4D
18.09Union BerlinH7:0xG 3.7–0.3W
Borussia Dortmund
Recent matches: Borussia Dortmund
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
24.10Eintracht FrankfurtH1:0xG 1.6–0.9W
20.10SabahChampions LeagueA2:1xG 3.8–1.5W
17.10Union BerlinA0:0xG 1.4–0.9D
14.10Bodø/GlimtChampions LeagueA0:1xG 0.8–1.2L
09.10Werder BremenH2:2xG 2.4–1.1D
19.09StuttgartA1:0xG 1.3–0.9W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstBayern MunichBorussia DortmundBundesliga
goals3.6 / 0.91.7 / 0.61.8
xG3.4 / 0.91.6 / 11.8
shots23.3 / 915.3 / 11.115.4
shots on target10.1 / 35.1 / 35.4
corners9.1 / 36 / 4.15.3
fouls10.6 / 9.310.7 / 11.911.3
yellow cards0.9 / 2.32.1 / 21.8
matches over 2.586%43%
both scored71%29%
clean sheets29%71%
failed to score14%14%
home / away
goals6 / 0.71.3 / 0.7
average total6.72
matches over 2.5100%33%
both scored67%33%
  • Bayern Munich score more than the league average: 3.6 vs 1.8
  • Bayern Munich: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
  • Borussia Dortmund unbeaten in the last 5 league games
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Bayern Munich, away games only for Borussia Dortmund

Head to head

last 10

6–3–1Bayern Munich wins · draws · Borussia Dortmund wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich1:222.08.26Super Cup
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich2:328.02.26
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund2:118.10.25
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund2:212.04.25
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich1:130.11.24
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund0:230.03.24
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich0:404.11.23
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund4:201.04.23
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich2:208.10.22
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund3:123.04.22
  • both scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 8 of 10

League table

League standings: Bundesliga
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
1Bayern Munich75-2-025–617WWDWW
2Borussia Dortmund75-2-012–417WWDDW
3Freiburg74-1-216–913WDWLL

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right

Goals by minute

league season
Bayern Munich
  • 0-1511
  • 16-3040
  • 31-4530
  • 46-6052
  • 61-7542
  • 76-9041
Borussia Dortmund
  • 0-1520
  • 16-3000
  • 31-4511
  • 46-6001
  • 61-7530
  • 76-9053

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

Full Bundesliga fixtures
14:30Borussia Mönchengladbach–PaderbornOur pick:O 2.51.477 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 1.90X 3.972 3.5014:30Schalke–LeipzigOur pick:21.849 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 3.77X 3.922 1.8614:30Augsburg–FreiburgOur pick:O 2.51.4810 of 16 AI models picked this bet1 2.93X 3.802 2.19