FINISHED
Udinese vs Milan 0:2: result and odds
Udinese vs Milan finished 0:2; before kick-off the odds were 1.80 on a Milan win (having opened at 1.79), 4.55 on a Udinese win and 3.65 on a draw. The AI models' pick was Milan to win at 1.79, and it won.
- Referee: Matteo Marcenaro
- Serie A, matchday 8 of 38
- +8°, cloudy
- Bluenergy Stadium, Udine
published · updated UTC
AI models' pick: Milan to win
1.79The market prices this option at 53%
AI models' pick · 10 of 16 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction
Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results
what these numbers mean
- won / lost
- The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
- closing odds
- The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
- CLV
- How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
likely score
1:2 9%0:1 9%0:2 9% — this score came in
The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 4 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.
What the odds were
Over 7 days a Udinese win drifted from 4.46 to 4.55 — fewer bets on the home side.
abbreviations
- 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
- O/U — over/under total goals
- H1/H2 — home/away handicap
- 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Milan: 1.79 → 1.80 since we publishedView
This market has barely moved: Udinese 4.46 → 4.55, Draw 3.70 → 3.65, Milan 1.79 → 1.80.
Price changes
| When | Udinese | Draw | Milan · our bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.55+0.09 | 3.65+0.01 | 1.80−0.04 | |
| 4.46−0.03 | 3.64 | 1.84+0.01 | |
| 4.49−0.03 | 3.64−0.02 | 1.83+0.01 | |
| 4.52−0.31 | 3.66−0.07 | 1.82+0.06 | |
| 4.83+0.30 | 3.73+0.06 | 1.76−0.05 | |
| 4.53−0.42 | 3.67−0.17 | 1.81+0.09 | |
| 4.95−0.18 | 3.84−0.04 | 1.72+0.03 | |
| 5.13 | 3.88+0.02 | 1.69 | |
| 5.13−0.02 | 3.86+0.01 | 1.69 | |
| 5.15+0.02 | 3.85+0.01 | 1.69 | |
| 5.13+0.11 | 3.84 | 1.69−0.01 | |
| 5.02+0.02 | 3.84+0.03 | 1.70+0.01 | |
| 5.00−0.22 | 3.81−0.11 | 1.69+0.03 | |
| 5.22+0.02 | 3.92+0.01 | 1.66+0.01 | |
| 5.20+0.04 | 3.91+0.02 | 1.65+0.01 | |
| 5.16+0.01 | 3.89+0.01 | 1.64 | |
| 5.15+0.69 | 3.88+0.18 | 1.64−0.15 | |
| 18 Oct – 19 Oct · no snapshots for 30 h | |||
| We published a Milan win at 1.79 | |||
| 4.46opened | 3.70opened | 1.79opened | |
How the match went
Christian Pulisic gave Milan the lead on six minutes, set up by Luka Modrić, and it was 0-1 at half-time. Omari Hutchinson added the second on 65 minutes, and Milan won 2-0 away to Udinese. The expected goals were far apart: 3.15 for Milan against 0.46 for Udinese, with 19 shots to 12 and seven on target to five. Milan had 60% of the ball. Gonçalo Ramos and Luka Modrić were booked for Milan, Jesper Karlstrom for Udinese. Our Milan to win bet at 1.79 landed. The market had Milan's win at 1.80 before kick-off and Udinese's at 4.55, and the exact score was on offer at 8.38. With two goals the 2.5 line finished under, and Milan kept a clean sheet.
- 6'Christian Pulisic (Luka Modrić)0:1
- 39'Gonçalo Ramos YC
- 43'Jesper Karlstrom YC
- 45'on Lennon Miller, off Jakub Piotrowski
- 63'on Nicolo Zaniolo, off Mergim Vojvoda
- 64'on Juan Arizala, off Hassane Kamara
- 65'Omari Hutchinson0:2
- 73'on Ruben Loftus-Cheek, off Omari Hutchinson
- 73'on Yunus Musah, off Fikayo Tomori
- 83'on Giulio Vinciati, off Keinan Davis
- 83'on Sandi Lovric, off Jesper Karlstrom
- 85'on Alphadjo Cissè, off Davide Bartesaghi
- 90'Luka Modrić YC
- 90+1'on Francesco Camarda, off Gonçalo Ramos
- 90+1'on Christian Comotto, off Ruben Loftus-Cheek
| Udinese | stat | Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 0.46 | expected goals (xG) | 3.15 |
| 12 | shots | 19 |
| 5 | on target | 7 |
| 40% | possession | 60% |
| 5 | corners | 4 |
| 11 | fouls | 13 |
| 5 | saves | 5 |
| 1 | yellow cards | 2 |
what these numbers mean
- expected goals (xG)
- How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
- feed rating
- The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.
Starting line-ups
Udinese- 40M. Okoye6.7
- 16M. Palma6.8
- 27C. Kabasele6.5
- 14J. Abankwah6.2
- 11H. Kamara6.5
- 8J. Karlström6.4
- 24J. Piotrowski6.1
- 23M. Vojvoda6.7
- 32J. Ekkelenkamp6.0
- 30G. Chakvetadze6.3
- 9K. Davis6.1
- 77E. Ebosse
- 6Oier Zarraga
- 10N. Zanioloon 63'5.7
- 45G. Vinciation 83'6.4
- 93D. Padelli
- 20J. Arizalaon 64'6.0
- 13N. Bertola
- 46Unai Gómez
- 91L. Jovanović
- 4S. Lovrićon 83'5.8
- 38L. Milleron 45'6.6
- 41B. Mrozek
Milan- 16M. Maignan7.8
- 13S. Bocoum7.0
- 31S. Pavlović7.9
- 5K. De Winter7.3
- 23F. Tomori6.8
- 33D. Bartesaghi6.5
- 30A. Jashari7.2
- 14L. Modrić7.7
- 20O. Hutchinson8.2
- 11C. Pulišić — highest feed rating in the match8.2
- 9Gonçalo Ramos6.3
- 55Silvano Vos
- 41L. P. Bouyer
- 73F. Camardaon 90+1'
- 70A. Cissèon 85'7.1
- 28C. Comottoon 90+1'
- 2P. Estupiñán
- 8R. Loftus-Cheekon 73'7.0
- 80Y. Musahon 73'6.8
- 40L. Ossola
- 42F. Terracciano
- 96L. Torriani
- 35V. Vladimirov
- 48El Hadji Malick Cissé
- 47N. Perera
- 49Luka Menon
AI prediction and analysis
The vote split evenly: 5 each on a Milan win (won) and on both teams to score (lost). The other 6 chose other bets: a Milan handicap and double chance.
- 5 of 162our betodds 1.79ChatGPT
Gemini
GLM
Dots3-NoteNemotron Superwon - 4 of 16H2 (−1)same directionodds 2.43KimiQwenXiaomi MiMoNemotron Ultrawon
- 1 of 16X2same directionodds 1.21
Sonarwon - 1 of 16H2 (−1.5)same directionodds 3.26Mistralwon
- 5 of 16BTTSodds 1.80ClaudeDeepSeek
GrokDeepSeek FlashMiniMaxlost
Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.
Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 23.10 at 20:38 UTC
Udinese arrive on a run of five straight defeats, with five goals scored and 13 conceded, and sit 16th on four points after seven rounds. Milan have 15 points and fourth place. At home Udinese have yet to win in four games, averaging 0.5 goals for and 1.8 against, while Milan have not lost on the road: one win and three draws, with 1.5 goals a game. The recent trips to Udine have gone the same way, Milan winning 3-0 in September 2025 and 4-0 in April 2025, and the market rates the away win at 53%. The hosts are also without Alaba, Bayo and Gueye. Our pick is Milan to win at odds of 1.79.
Where we could be wrong
The obvious risk is at the other end. Milan have not kept a clean sheet away from home, and both teams have scored in all four of their away matches, so one spell of pressure could be enough for Udinese to get something out of this. They have form for it too: in April 2026 Udinese won 3-0 at Milan. The visitors, for their part, are missing Saelemaekers and Gabbia, with Gonçalo Ramos a doubt.
The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate
Stats and form
Injuries and suspensions
Udinese- D. AlabaDF · 17 matches in 2025/26calf injuryout
- V. BayoFW · 16 matches in 2025/26thigh injuryout
I. GueyeFW · 21 matches in 2025/26ankle injuryout
N. ZanioloMF · 6 goals in 2025/26thigh injurydoubtful
Milan- S. ChukwuezeFW · 1 match in 2025/26hip injuryout
- M. GabbiaDF · 31 matches in 2025/26thigh injuryout
- A. SaelemaekersMF · 39 matches in 2025/26ankle injuryout
- G. Ramos13 goals in 2025/26calf injurydoubtful
managers: K. Runjaic · Ruben Amorim · main formations this season: 3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Recent matches
Udinese| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.10 | Lecce | H | 0:3xG 0.6–3.5 | L |
| 12.10 | Torino | A | 1:2xG 0.8–2.7 | L |
| 26.09 | Pogoń Szczecinclub friendly | A | 1:1 | D |
| 19.09 | Cagliari | H | 0:1xG 2.1–1.1 | L |
| 14.09 | Inter | A | 3:5xG 0.9–3.0 | L |
| 07.09 | Lazio | H | 1:2xG 0.8–1.8 | L |
Milan| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.10 | BournemouthEuropa League | A | 0:3xG 0.2–3.2 | L |
| 18.10 | Atalanta | H | 3:2xG 2.5–1.7 | W |
| 15.10 | SalzburgEuropa League | A | 4:0xG 3.5–0.9 | W |
| 11.10 | Sassuolo | A | 1:1xG 1.2–1.2 | D |
| 20.09 | Lecce | H | 3:0xG 2.2–0.2 | W |
| 16.09 | BenficaEuropa League | H | 0:2xG 1.0–0.6 | L |
H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag
Season averages
| for / against | | | Serie A |
|---|---|---|---|
| goals | 1.3 / 2.3 | 2 / 1 | 1.5 |
| xG | 1.2 / 2.2 | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.5 |
| shots | 14.3 / 16.4 | 12.3 / 9.6 | 14.6 |
| shots on target | 3.9 / 6.6 | 4.7 / 3.6 | 4.9 |
| corners | 3.9 / 5.7 | 3 / 3.1 | 4.7 |
| fouls | 11 / 8.9 | 9.3 / 12 | 10.9 |
| yellow cards | 1.9 / 0.4 | 1.9 / 1.4 | 1.7 |
| matches over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| both scored | 71% | 71% | |
| clean sheets | 0% | 29% | |
| failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| home / away | |||
| goals | 0.5 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 1.3 | |
| average total | 2.3 | 2.8 | |
| matches over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| both scored | 50% | 100% | |
- Udinese score less than the league average: 1.3 vs 1.5
- Milan score more than the league average: 2 vs 1.5
- Udinese: 5 league defeats in a row
- Milan unbeaten in the last 5 league games
- "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Udinese, away games only for Milan
Head to head
3–2–5Udinese wins · draws · Milan wins
| Match | Score | Date | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milan vs Udinese | 0:3 | 11.04.26 | |
| Udinese vs Milan | 0:3 | 20.09.25 | |
| Udinese vs Milan | 0:4 | 11.04.25 | |
| Milan vs Udinese | 1:0 | 19.10.24 | |
| Udinese vs Milan | 2:3 | 20.01.24 | |
| Milan vs Udinese | 0:1 | 04.11.23 | |
| Udinese vs Milan | 3:1 | 18.03.23 | |
| Milan vs Udinese | 4:2 | 13.08.22 | |
| Milan vs Udinese | 1:1 | 25.02.22 | |
| Udinese vs Milan | 1:1 | 11.12.21 |
- both scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings
- over 2.5 goals — in 6 of 10
League table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF–GA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Roma | 7 | 5-2-0 | 16–3 | 17 | WWDDW |
| 4 | Milan | 7 | 4-3-0 | 14–7 | 15 | DDWDW |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 4-2-1 | 12–7 | 14 | WWLDW |
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | 1-2-4 | 6–10 | 5 | DLDWL |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1-1-5 | 9–16 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1-1-5 | 5–13 | 4 | LDLWL |
excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 23.10
Goals by minute
- 0-1511
- 16-3021
- 31-4544
- 46-6013
- 61-7504
- 76-9013
- 0-1511
- 16-3010
- 31-4511
- 46-6010
- 61-7592
- 76-9004
in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals
