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data updated 27.10 08:07

FINISHED

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe 2:1: result and odds

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe finished 2:1; before kick-off the odds were 1.96 on a Galatasaray win (having opened at 2.28), 3.40 on a Fenerbahçe win and 3.78 on a draw. The AI models' pick was Galatasaray to win at 2.24, and it won.

published · updated UTC

Galatasaray
Fenerbahçe

AI models' pick: Galatasaray to win

2.24

The market prices this option at 42%

AI models' pick · 10 of 15 on this bet or a bolder one · 1 more in the same direction

Our football predictions so far: 163 won · 135 lost · 7 void · −5.80 units All results

won+1.24 unitsclosing odds1.96CLV+14%
what these numbers mean
won / lost
The result of the bet once the round is settled: profit or loss at a stake of one unit at the odds shown.
closing odds
The odds on our bet at kick-off — the last price the market put up.
CLV
How much higher our published odds were than the closing price. A plus means we took the bet at a better price than the market gave it by kick-off; a minus means the market moved the other way. The number does not depend on the match result.
Why this betAll odds

likely score

1:112%odds 7.21

2:1 9% — this score came in1:2 7%1:0 7%

The likely score lists the four most likely results; the odds next to it are the average price of 7 bookmakers on that score. This is not the bet: the AI consensus chooses the bet.

What the odds were

line before kick-off, last update 26.10 18:18

result11.96 — matches our bet−0.32X3.78+0.1623.40+0.58
total 2.5O1.51−0.06U2.47+0.09
both to scoreyes1.44−0.04no2.58+0.10
double chance1X1.30−0.11121.24−0.03X21.82+0.22
handicapH1 −0.51.95−0.33H2 +0.51.87+0.26

Over 7 days a Galatasaray win shortened from 2.28 to 1.96 — money is coming in on the home side.

abbreviations
  • 1/X/2 — home win / draw / away win
  • O/U — over/under total goals
  • H1/H2 — home/away handicap
  • 1X/12/X2 — home or draw / no draw / away or draw
Line movementOur bet — Galatasaray: 2.24 → 1.96 since we publishedView

Since we published, our bet (a Galatasaray win) has shortened from 2.24 to 1.96: the market now rates it as more likely.

Galatasaray2.28 → 1.96our betDraw3.62 → 3.78Fenerbahçe2.82 → 3.40
2.002.503.003.504.0019 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25 Oct26 OctWe published · 2.24Draw 3.78Fenerbahçe 3.40Galatasaray 1.96

Price changes

Price changes in the 1X2 market
WhenGalatasaray · our betDrawFenerbahçe
1.963.78−0.063.40+0.03
1.96−0.033.84+0.053.37+0.10
1.99−0.033.79−0.013.27+0.08
2.02−0.023.80+0.023.19+0.06
2.04−0.083.78+0.043.13+0.13
2.12−0.013.74−0.013.00+0.02
2.13−0.023.75+0.022.98+0.05
2.15−0.023.73−0.032.93−0.01
2.173.762.94+0.01
2.173.76+0.012.93
2.17−0.013.752.93
2.183.75−0.012.93+0.02
2.183.762.91−0.01
2.18+0.013.76+0.032.92+0.02
2.17+0.013.732.90−0.05
2.16−0.073.73+0.022.95+0.10
2.23−0.013.712.85+0.01
We published a Galatasaray win at 2.24
2.24−0.043.71+0.092.84+0.02
2.28opened3.62opened2.82opened
104 snapshots · the prices changed 18 times

How the match went

half-time 2:0

match report · 26.10 20:25

  1. 10'FenerbahçeI. Kahveci YC
  2. 11'FenerbahçeM. Skriniar YC
  3. 19'GalatasarayD. Sanchez YC
  4. 29'GalatasarayV. Osimhen (B. Yilmaz)1:0
  5. 31'FenerbahçeN. Kante YC
  6. 44'GalatasarayV. Osimhen (D. Sanchez)2:0
  7. 45+1'GalatasarayO. Buruk YC
  8. 54'FenerbahçeN. Semedo YC
  9. 55'Fenerbahçeon K. Akturkoglu, off M. Greenwood
  10. 56'Fenerbahçeon K. Peprah, off L. Mercan
  11. 62'FenerbahçeI. Kahveci (O. Aydin)2:1
  12. 64'Galatasarayon R. Leao, off B. Yilmaz
  13. 78'Fenerbahçeon D. Nene, off O. Aydin
  14. 78'Fenerbahçeon M. Yandas, off I. Kahveci
  15. 80'Galatasarayon L. Sane, off Y. Akgun
  16. 80'Galatasarayon Gabriel Sara, off A. Batrakov
  17. 80'Galatasarayon E. Elmali, off I. Jakobs
  18. 83'Fenerbahçeon V. Muriqi, off N. Kante
  19. 88'Galatasarayon W. Singo, off V. Osimhen
  20. 89'GalatasarayR. Leao YC
  21. 90+1'FenerbahçeA. Brown YC
Match stats: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe
GalatasaraystatFenerbahçe
2.15expected goals (xG)0.14
22shots2
7on target2
63%possession37%
9corners4
8fouls17
1saves5
86%pass accuracy70%
1yellow cards4
what these numbers mean
expected goals (xG)
How many goals shots of this quality and from these positions produce on average. It shows how well the score reflects the game: 0.6 xG with two goals scored means clinical finishing, not domination.
feed rating
The player's match rating from our statistics provider — not ours. It is based on actions on and off the ball; we do not recalculate it and show it as it is.

Starting line-ups

Galatasaray

formation 4-2-3-1

starting XIfeed rating
  • 1Uğurcan Çakır6.2
  • 4Ismail Jakobs6.9
  • 42Abdülkerim Bardakcı6.5
  • 6Davinson Sánchez6.9
  • 7Roland Sallai7.2
  • 99Mario Lemina7.2
  • 34Lucas Torreira6.5
  • 53Barış Alper Yılmaz7.7
  • 83Aleksey Batrakov7.6
  • 11Yunus Akgün7.0
  • 45Victor Osimhen — highest feed rating in the match8.2
substitutes
  • 24Jankat Yılmaz
  • 17Eren Elmalıon 80'
  • 90Wilfried Singoon 88'
  • 10Leroy Sanéon 80'
  • 74Renato Nhaga
  • 20İlkay Gündoğan
  • 18Lesley Ugochukwu
  • 8Gabriel Saraon 80'
  • 21Deniz Gül
  • 27Rafael Leãoon 64'6.9
Fenerbahçe

formation 4-2-3-1

starting XIfeed rating
  • 31Ederson6.9
  • 22Levent Mercan6.3
  • 3Archie Brown5.9
  • 37Milan Škriniar6.7
  • 27Nélson Semedo6.3
  • 91N'Golo Kanté6.3
  • 6Mattéo Guendouzi6.3
  • 70Oğuz Aydın6.9
  • 17İrfan Can Kahveci7.3
  • 11Mason Greenwood6.3
  • 9Romelu Lukaku7.0
substitutes
  • 34Mert Günok
  • 18Mert Müldür
  • 14Yiğit Efe Demir
  • 21Kojo Peprah Oppongon 56'7.0
  • 8Mert Hakan Yandaşon 78'6.7
  • 28Bartuğ Elmaz
  • 5İsmail Yüksek
  • 19Vedat Muriqion 83'
  • 7Kerem Aktürkoğluon 55'6.6
  • 45Dorgeles Neneon 78'6.5

AI prediction and analysis

The largest group of AI models bet on a Galatasaray win — the bet won. 5 more chose close bets in the same direction: Galatasaray draw no bet and Galatasaray not losing. 2 more bet on both teams to score — the bet won. The other 2 chose a bet each: a total-goals bet and 'both to score — no'.

Odds — the bookmaker average at the moment the AI model answered.

Odds quoted in this analysis are as of 20.10 at 19:40 UTC

Galatasaray are top of the Super Lig with 19 points, three ahead of Fenerbahçe, and at home they play a different game: 2.3 goals scored per match and three wins from four. The head-to-heads back the hosts too — five wins, three draws and two defeats in the last ten derbies, and in April Galatasaray won 3-0 on their own pitch. The odds have shifted their way over the past 24 hours, from 2.28 to 2.24, and that is the price on our pick, a Galatasaray home win.

Where we could be wrong

The warning sign is Fenerbahçe's away record. On the road the visitors barely concede — 0.5 goals a game and three clean sheets in four — and across their last five matches they have scored 15 and conceded just two. Derbies here rarely follow form either: the teams drew 0-0 in February 2025 and 1-1 in December 2025, and that well-drilled away defence could easily drag this one into another grind. Both sides have a European week behind them, so the line-ups for Saturday evening are hard to call.

The bet comes from the largest group of AI models pointing the same way (a home win and a home handicap count as one view), and within that group it is the bet named most often; if two groups are level, the one priced closer to the bookmakers' line is taken — how we calculate

Written automatically by Kickscore AI · published · updated · how we calculate

Stats and form

Recent matches

all competitions · latest first · as of 26.10
Galatasaray
Recent matches: Galatasaray
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
21.10LilleChampions LeagueA4:2W
17.10GençlerbirliğiA1:0xG 1.9–1.7W
13.10BarcelonaChampions LeagueH1:4xG 0.4–2.9L
09.10KasımpaşaH3:1xG 2.5–0.5W
02.10Pendiksporclub friendlyA3:3D
19.09TrabzonsporA0:4xG 1.0–2.2L
Fenerbahçe
Recent matches: Fenerbahçe
DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20.10Slavia PragueChampions LeagueH2:2xG 1.1–1.5D
17.10AlanyasporH3:0xG 2.8–0.1W
14.10Aston VillaChampions LeagueA0:6xG 1.8–3.1L
10.10Çaykur RizesporA3:0xG 1.0–1.5W
03.10Turanclub friendlyA2:0W
20.09EyüpsporH8:0xG 5.1–0.7W

H — home, A — away · score and xG from the team's side · league matches carry no competition tag

Season averages

2026/27 · average per match
for / againstGalatasarayFenerbahçeSuper Lig
goals2.1 / 1.42.8 / 0.81.4
xG2.3 / 1.12.3 / 1.21.4
shots22.4 / 1118.4 / 13.414
shots on target7.6 / 3.57.3 / 4.14.7
corners7.5 / 3.16.3 / 3.64.8
fouls12 / 11.912.6 / 10.412.9
yellow cards1.6 / 1.91.4 / 1.42
matches over 2.575%75%
both scored50%38%
clean sheets38%63%
failed to score13%13%
home / away
goals2.3 / 1.31.5 / 0.5
average total3.52
matches over 2.575%50%
both scored75%25%
  • Galatasaray shoot more often than the league average: 22.4 shots vs 14
  • Fenerbahçe score more than the league average: 2.8 vs 1.4
  • Galatasaray: 4 wins in the last 5 league games
  • Fenerbahçe: 3 league wins in a row
  • "home / away" is split by the role in this match: home games only for Galatasaray, away games only for Fenerbahçe

Head to head

last 10

5–3–2Galatasaray wins · draws · Fenerbahçe wins

Recent head-to-head meetings
MatchScoreDateCompetition
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe3:026.04.26
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe0:210.01.26Turkish Super Cup
Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray1:101.12.25
Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray1:202.04.25Türkiye Kupası
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe0:024.02.25
Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray1:321.09.24
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe0:119.05.24
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe1:007.04.24Turkish Super Cup
Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray0:024.12.23
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe3:004.06.23
  • both scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings
  • over 2.5 goals — in 4 of 10

League table

League standings: Super Lig
#TeamPW-D-LGF–GAPtsForm
1Galatasaray86-1-117–1119WWLWW
2Amedspor85-2-118–917DWWDW
3Fenerbahçe85-1-222–616LDWWW
4Trabzonspor85-1-218–516WLWWW

excerpt: both teams and their neighbours in the table · form — latest on the right · as of 20.10

Goals by minute

league season
Galatasaray
  • 0-1511
  • 16-3021
  • 31-4532
  • 46-6021
  • 61-7534
  • 76-9062
Fenerbahçe
  • 0-1561
  • 16-3030
  • 31-4542
  • 46-6041
  • 61-7511
  • 76-9041

in each row: scored in green, conceded in grey — in 15-minute intervals

Other matches this round

All Super Lig results
2:0Beşiktaş–İstanbul BaşakşehirOur pick:H1 (−1.5)2.11prediction won13 of 15 AI models picked this bet1 1.36X 5.232 7.383:4Çaykur Rizespor–TrabzonsporOur pick:22.07prediction won12 of 15 AI models picked this bet1 3.77X 3.842 1.862:0Göztepe–ÇorumOur pick:O 2.51.62prediction lost9 of 15 AI models picked this bet1 2.20X 3.452 3.13