Accumulator for 18 October
7 selections from the day’s matches, one per match, from most likely to riskiest. There is no ready-made acca here: take as many legs as you see fit, and each row shows what the combination down to it adds up to.
Selection ladder
| # | Match | Selection | Probability | First N together |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen — FreiburgBundesliga · 13:30 UTC | Bayer Leverkusen or draw1.21 | 78% | this row78% · 1.21 | |
| Le Havre — AuxerreLigue 1 · 15:15 UTC | Over 1.5 goals1.27 | 74% | first 258% · 1.54 | |
| Lorient — MonacoLigue 1 · 15:15 UTC | Over 1.5 goals1.28 | 74% | first 343% · 1.97 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach — HoffenheimBundesliga · 15:30 UTC | Over 2.5 goals1.37 | 68% | first 429% · 2.69 | |
| Paris — RennesLigue 1 · 15:15 UTC | Paris or draw1.40 | 68% | first 520% · 3.77 | |
| Angers — MarseilleLigue 1 · 13:00 UTC | Under 3.5 goals1.52 | 62% | first 612% · 5.73 | |
| Lyon — NiceLigue 1 · 18:45 UTC | Lyon to win1.64 | 57% | first 77% · 9.40 | |
Tick selections in the ladder to see the odds and chance of your acca. Your bet0Odds—Our chance— | ||||
Probability the chance the market has priced into this selection’s odds.
First N together the chance that every selection down to this row wins, and the odds of that acca.
the acca down to this row lands more than half the timeless than halfless than one in five. The colour is about the acca as a whole, not any single selection.
About this accumulator
Bayer Leverkusen have rarely gone without scoring at home this season, and the chance that they avoid defeat against Freiburg reaches 78%. Backing Bayer Leverkusen or draw makes more sense than a straight win, especially with the hosts yet to concede at home this campaign. Two Ligue 1 fixtures follow with identical thinking: in Le Havre vs Auxerre and Lorient vs Monaco, both teams have scored in almost every recent meeting. Instead of a both-teams-to-score bet, over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance each looks safer, and previous head-to-heads in recent years have cleared that mark with ease.
From there, the risk increases on the acca slip. In Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim, the market rates four goals or more at just 48%, but Mönchengladbach's two home games this term produced seven goals each, making over 2.5 goals a much sturdier pick than the original target. When Paris host Rennes, double chance on Paris or draw comes in at 68% compared to just 41% for a straight home win, backed by the fact that the Parisians hardly concede on home soil. The remaining two tips take the opposite angle: in Angers vs Marseille, both attacks have stalled, so under 3.5 goals lands far more comfortably than a straight under 2.5 goals bet, while in Lyon vs Nice, the favourites only need a one-goal victory to land Lyon to win rather than relying on Lyon −1 handicap, with Lyon rated at 57% compared to 44% for the handicap market. The first three tips combine for a 43% chance at odds of 1.97, while all seven build an accumulator with a 7% chance at odds of 9.4.
Questions about this accumulator
What is the accumulator for 18 October?
7 selections from the day’s matches, from Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg (Bayer Leverkusen or draw at 1.21) to Lyon — Nice (Lyon to win at 1.64). The top three combined come to odds of 1.97 and, by our estimate, land 43% of the time; all 7 come to 9.40 and 7%.
How many selections should go into an accumulator?
The more selections, the lower the chance and the more the bookmaker’s margin compounds. On this ladder the top three have a 43% chance, the top five 20%, all 7 7%.