Accumulator for 15 October
10 selections from the day’s matches, one per match, from most likely to riskiest. There is no ready-made acca here: take as many legs as you see fit, and each row shows what the combination down to it adds up to.
Selection ladder
| # | Match | Selection | Probability | First N together |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano — Crvena ZvezdaUECL · 16:45 UTC | Over 1.5 goals1.20 | 78% | this row78% · 1.20 | |
| Lyon — Crystal PalaceUEL · 16:45 UTC | Over 1.5 goals1.20 | 78% | first 261% · 1.44 | |
| KuPS — TrabzonsporUECL · 16:45 UTC | Over 1.5 goals1.20 | 77% | first 347% · 1.73 | |
| Twente — ThunUECL · 19:00 UTC | Twente to win1.21 | 77% | first 436% · 2.09 | |
| Gent — AGF AarhusUECL · 16:45 UTC | Either team to win1.22 | 76% | first 527% · 2.55 | |
| Salzburg — MilanUEL · 16:45 UTC | Milan or draw1.25 | 76% | first 621% · 3.19 | |
| NEC — Levski SofiaUEL · 19:00 UTC | NEC or draw1.26 | 76% | first 716% · 4.02 | |
| Marseille — OlympiacosUEL · 19:00 UTC | Olympiacos +1.5 handicap1.25 | 75% | first 812% · 5.02 | |
| Benfica — CelticUEL · 19:00 UTC | Benfica to win1.26 | 75% | first 99% · 6.33 | |
| Rennes — OFI CreteUEL · 19:00 UTC | Rennes to win1.27 | 75% | first 107% · 8.04 | |
Tick selections in the ladder to see the odds and chance of your acca. Your bet0Odds—Our chance— | ||||
Probability the chance the market has priced into this selection’s odds.
First N together the chance that every selection down to this row wins, and the odds of that acca.
the acca down to this row lands more than half the timeless than halfless than one in five. The colour is about the acca as a whole, not any single selection.
About this accumulator
Lugano host Crvena Zvezda in the Conference League and rarely keep a clean sheet: over 1.5 goals carries a 78% chance, and the top of the slip needs just two goals between them rather than the three demanded by the main tip. The same logic applies to the Europa League meeting between Lyon and Crystal Palace, where over 1.5 goals also stands at 78%; both sides create chances at either end, so there is no need to wait for a third goal. In KuPS vs Trabzonspor, over 1.5 goals is preferred to the 50% chance of both teams to score, landing more reliably with plenty of efforts flying in at both ends. Meanwhile, the Twente -0.5 handicap against Thun holds a 77% chance: the hosts generate almost twice as many shots as their visitors, and any victory is enough without needing to back a win by two or more goals.
Lower down the acca, heavy favourites are spared the requirement of winning by a wide margin: for Benfica against Celtic and Rennes against OFI Crete, the -1.5 handicap is softened to a -0.5 handicap, where any simple win lands the bet. Extra risk comes from underdogs playing to avoid defeat: Milan visit Salzburg on a Milan +0.5 handicap having taken zero points from the opening round, while Olympiacos on an Olympiacos +1.5 handicap at Marseille and NEC at home to Levski Sofia on an NEC +0.5 handicap both hold 75% to 76% chances. In Gent vs AGF Aarhus, either team to win replaces the outright home victory; the Belgian side keep possession for less than half the match, leaving a draw as the only result that scuppers the bet. The combined chances drop quickly down the ladder: the first three tips together offer a 47% chance at odds of 1.73, while all ten selections combine for just 7% at 8.04.
Questions about this accumulator
What is the accumulator for 15 October?
10 selections from the day’s matches, from Lugano — Crvena Zvezda (Over 1.5 goals at 1.20) to Rennes — OFI Crete (Rennes to win at 1.27). The top three combined come to odds of 1.73 and, by our estimate, land 47% of the time; all 10 come to 8.04 and 7%.
How many selections should go into an accumulator?
The more selections, the lower the chance and the more the bookmaker’s margin compounds. On this ladder the top three have a 47% chance, the top five 27%, all 10 7%.